Northern Kentucky Norse at Texas A&M Aggies
Final · SECN+
67–104Last shot · Jeremiah Green misses driving layup
At lock: projected NKU 73.94–97.82 TA&M
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 6:09 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 349656890
- Winner: Texas A&M (98%)
- Spread: NKU +27.5 covers (62%)
- Total: Over 171.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)13
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
NKU 73.94–97.82 TA&M · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseTA&M +25.1 off · NKU +17.2 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to TA&M
- RecordTA&M 2-0 · NKU 2-1
- Market priorBlended 85% toward TA&M -26.5 / total 170.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NKU | 32 | 35 | 67 |
| TA&M | 52 | 52 | 104 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 5:1361–88
Donovan Rakotonanahary makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 5:1362–88
Donovan Rakotonanahary makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:4862–91
Mackenzie Mgbako makes 28-foot three point jumper (Rylan Griffen assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:4362–94
Jordan Pope makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 2:5862–96
Mackenzie Mgbako makes 0-foot tip in layup
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 2:5762–98
Josh Irving makes 1-foot alley oop dunk
- FT2nd Half 2:3362–99
Jamie Vinson makes free throw 1 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:2962–102
Rylan Griffen makes 23-foot three point jumper
- FT2nd Half 1:0163–102
Donovan Rakotonanahary makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:0164–102
Donovan Rakotonanahary makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:4564–104
Neiko Mundey makes driving layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:2567–104
JJ Apathjang makes 29-foot three point jumper
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| NKU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 N. Pagotto F · #13 | 22 | 8 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 4-8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
 W. Shortt F · #7 | 20 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
 W. Foster G · #0 | 33 | 23 | 8-18 | 3-8 | 4-4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
 E. Acker G · #2 | 34 | 14 | 5-9 | 0-4 | 4-5 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 B.J. Davis-Ray G · #9 | 25 | 11 | 3-13 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 |
 J. Ruiz F · #17 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
 R. Tolliver F · #1 | 25 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
 D. Rakotonanahary F · #10 | 20 | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
 G. Jokubauskas G · #8 | 14 | 2 | 0-4 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
 JJ Apathjang G · #22 | 3 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 B. Darbyshire G · #4 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
P P. Mae F · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 E. Elliott G · #6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 67 | 20-58 | 7-24 | 20-25 | 38 | 10 | 23 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 26 | 14 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| NKU | TA&M | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 20-58 | 41-75 |
| FG% | 34 | 55 |
| 3PT | 7-24 | 12-29 |
| 3P% | 29 | 41 |
| FT | 20-25 | 10-17 |
| FT% | 80 | 59 |
| REB | 38 | 39 |
| OR | 12 | 11 |
| DR | 26 | 28 |
| AST | 10 | 18 |
| STL | 7 | 15 |
| BLK | 6 | 9 |
| TO | 23 | 9 |
| TTO | 2 | 0 |
| ToTO | 23 | 9 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 6 | 35 |
| FBPs | 6 | 14 |
| PIP | 22 | 56 |
| PF | 14 | 20 |
| LL | 0 | 40 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 99 |
At lock NKU 73.94–97.82 TA&M · TA&M by 23.9 pts vs NKU +27.5 · 57% is the confidence saved at lock
MissN. Pagotto · NKU
22 MIN · 8 PTSJ. Shelley · TA&M
19 MIN · 13 PTSWillie Foster · NKU
STAT · 33 MIN · 23 PTS · 8-18 FG · 3-8 3PTJordan Pope · TA&M
STAT · 20 MIN · 18 PTS · 7-9 FG · 3-5 3PTEric Acker · NKU
STAT · 34 MIN · 14 PTS · 5-9 FG · 0-4 3PTMackenzie Mgbako · TA&M
STAT · 28 MIN · 14 PTS · 5-13 FG · 2-5 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
N Kentucky vs Texas A&M pick result · Nov 6, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is NKU +27.5, with a 57% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day