Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles at Belmont Bruins
Final · ESPN+
54–72Last shot · Didier Maleng misses free throw 2 of 2
At lock: projected USI 69.21–83.87 BEL
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 2:47 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2548685919
- Winner: Belmont (91%)
- Spread: USI +16.5 covers (56%)
- Total: Under 154.5 (58%)
- Score error (both teams)27
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
USI 69.21–83.87 BEL · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseBEL +0.0 off · USI +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to BEL
- Market priorBlended 86% toward BEL -17.5 / total 155.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USI | 14 | 40 | 54 |
| BEL | 27 | 45 | 72 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:3246–64
Isaiah West makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jack Smiley assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:1248–64
Afan Trnka makes 10-foot jumper
- FT2nd Half 3:4749–64
Josiah Dunham makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:4750–64
Josiah Dunham makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:2650–66
Jack Smiley makes driving layup
- FT2nd Half 2:5551–66
Didier Maleng makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:4751–68
Jack Smiley makes layup (Vincent Neugebauer assists)
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 2:0551–70
Jabez Jenkins makes 4-foot dunk
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:4953–70
Josiah Dunham makes 13-foot jumper
- FT2nd Half 1:2853–71
Jabez Jenkins makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:2853–72
Jabez Jenkins makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2554–72
Didier Maleng makes free throw 1 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| USI | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 D. Maleng F · #15 | 12 | 4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
 F. Sylla G · #21 | 13 | 4 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
 A. Trnka G · #4 | 25 | 3 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
 J. Dunham G · #22 | 24 | 11 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
 K. Brown G · #0 | 29 | 12 | 4-15 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
 J. Pautsch F · #31 | 22 | 7 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
 M. Hryshchuk F · #6 | 6 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 D. Hunter F · #5 | 22 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 |
 Y. Yamanouchi-Williams F · #10 | 5 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
 A. Fejzic G · #33 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Y. Warren G · #3 | 15 | 7 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
 A. Gooch G · #2 | 18 | 6 | 3-8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
 LA Hayes G · #7 | 5 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 M. Knight G · #24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Smith G · #1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 54 | 20-61 | 4-21 | 10-19 | 41 | 7 | 19 | 12 | 3 | 16 | 25 | 17 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| USI | BEL | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 20-61 | 27-52 |
| FG% | 33 | 52 |
| 3PT | 4-21 | 6-20 |
| 3P% | 19 | 30 |
| FT | 10-19 | 12-19 |
| FT% | 53 | 63 |
| REB | 41 | 36 |
| OR | 16 | 7 |
| DR | 25 | 29 |
| AST | 7 | 11 |
| STL | 12 | 10 |
| BLK | 3 | 3 |
| TO | 19 | 19 |
| TTO | 1 | 0 |
| ToTO | 19 | 19 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 18 | 27 |
| FBPs | 8 | 12 |
| PIP | 26 | 40 |
| PF | 17 | 20 |
| LL | 0 | 19 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 99 |
At lock USI 69.21–83.87 BEL · BEL by 14.7 pts vs USI +16.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
MissD. Maleng · USI
12 MIN · 4 PTSE. Dillon · BEL
28 MIN · 6 PTSJack Smiley · BEL
STAT · 36 MIN · 24 PTS · 10-18 FG · 2-6 3PTKaden Brown · USI
STAT · 29 MIN · 12 PTS · 4-15 FG · 4-10 3PTJosiah Dunham · USI
STAT · 24 MIN · 11 PTS · 4-7 FG · 3-3 FTJabez Jenkins · BEL
STAT · 19 MIN · 10 PTS · 3-4 FG · 0-1 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
S Indiana vs Belmont pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is USI +16.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day