Stony Brook Seawolves at Northwestern Wildcats
Final · B1G+
65–78Last shot · Jake West misses 9-foot turnaround jump shot
At lock: projected STBK 67.25–77.54 NU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 6:09 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 417045736
- Winner: Northwestern (82%)
- Spread: STBK +11.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Over 144.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)2
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
STBK 67.25–77.54 NU · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseNU +15.3 off · STBK +9.9 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to NU
- RecordNU 2-0 · STBK 1-1
- Market priorBlended 85% toward NU -11.5 / total 144.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| STBK | 30 | 35 | 65 |
| NU | 44 | 34 | 78 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 6:0156–68
LA Pratt makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 5:2856–70
Jake West makes layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 5:1058–70
Ozgur Cengiz makes driving layup
- FT2nd Half 4:4358–71
Jake West makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:4358–72
Jake West makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:2659–72
Bryan Ndjonga makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:2660–72
Bryan Ndjonga makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:1160–74
Jake West makes driving layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:3060–76
LA Pratt makes driving layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:1962–76
Bryan Ndjonga makes driving layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:0162–78
Angelo Ciaravino makes layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:4965–78
Ozgur Cengiz makes 27-foot three point jumper (Leonardo Van Elswyk assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| STBK | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 T. Valentiny F · #21 | 11 | 3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
 J. Daughtry F · #2 | 24 | 8 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 4-5 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
 B. Ndjonga F · #9 | 33 | 19 | 6-11 | 1-4 | 6-8 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
 Ö. Cengiz G · #1 | 24 | 13 | 4-9 | 3-7 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
 M. Ugusuk G · #4 | 32 | 12 | 4-12 | 1-7 | 3-5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
 Q. Gorman F · #15 | 19 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
 L. Van Elswyk C · #33 | 5 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 E. Simmon G · #7 | 22 | 8 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 J. Butler G · #3 | 3 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
 C. O'Connor G · #13 | 27 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 E. Vatan F · #34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 K. Daeger G · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 K. Fields G · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 L. Dagostino G · #6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 K. Price G · #0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 65 | 20-51 | 7-29 | 18-25 | 27 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 17 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| STBK | NU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 20-51 | 25-52 |
| FG% | 39 | 48 |
| 3PT | 7-29 | 12-23 |
| 3P% | 24 | 52 |
| FT | 18-25 | 16-19 |
| FT% | 72 | 84 |
| REB | 27 | 36 |
| OR | 10 | 11 |
| DR | 17 | 25 |
| AST | 9 | 13 |
| STL | 3 | 3 |
| BLK | 4 | 4 |
| TO | 9 | 11 |
| TTO | 1 | 2 |
| ToTO | 9 | 11 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 10 | 7 |
| FBPs | 1 | 8 |
| PIP | 24 | 26 |
| PF | 17 | 17 |
| LL | 0 | 16 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 98 |
At lock STBK 67.25–77.54 NU · NU by 10.3 pts vs STBK +11.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
MissT. Valentiny · STBK
11 MIN · 3 PTSO. Federiko · NU
22 MIN · 3 PTSJake West · NU
STAT · 38 MIN · 23 PTS · 8-17 FG · 4-9 3PTBryan Ndjonga · STBK
STAT · 33 MIN · 19 PTS · 6-11 FG · 1-4 3PTLA Pratt · NU
STAT · 32 MIN · 16 PTS · 5-11 FG · 2-4 3PTPhoenix Gill · NU
STAT · 24 MIN · 14 PTS · 5-7 FG · 4-6 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Stony Brook vs Northwestern pick result · Nov 6, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is STBK +11.5, with a 51% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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