Eastern Illinois Panthers at Iowa Hawkeyes
Final · BTN
47–91Last shot · Shia Francis misses 15-foot jumper
At lock: projected EIU 52.49–82.37 IOWA
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 6:09 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2614663562
- Winner: Iowa (100%)
- Spread: EIU +34.5 covers (66%)
- Total: Over 134.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)14
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
EIU 52.49–82.37 IOWA · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseIOWA +10.8 off · EIU +16.9 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to IOWA
- RecordIOWA 2-0 · EIU 0-2
- Market priorBlended 85% toward IOWA -34.5 / total 134.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EIU | 20 | 27 | 47 |
| IOWA | 41 | 50 | 91 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 5:0340–78
Demar Burton makes free throw 1 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:4740–81
Ethan Harris makes 24-foot three point jumper (Ty'Reek Coleman assists)
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 4:2240–83
Jaidyn Coon makes 2-foot dunk (Trey Thompson assists)
- FT2nd Half 3:5841–83
Markus Blackwell makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:5842–83
Markus Blackwell makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:3742–84
Jaidyn Coon makes free throw 2 of 2
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 3:0644–84
Demar Burton makes 3-foot dunk (Jaden Miller assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:1744–86
Jacob Koch makes 2-foot jumper
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:1546–86
JT Elder makes 2-foot jumper
- FT2nd Half 1:1547–86
JT Elder makes free throw 1 of 1
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 1:0447–88
Trey Thompson makes 1-foot dunk (Jacob Koch assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:3047–91
Jacob Koch makes 25-foot three point jumper (Joey Matteoni assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| EIU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 G. Welch F · #11 | 15 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 D. Ntambwe F · #7 | 19 | 4 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 D. Burton F · #24 | 15 | 9 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
 J. Miller G · #3 | 25 | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
 JT Elder G · #5 | 23 | 7 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 E. Hillsman F · #9 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 A. Austin F · #15 | 22 | 2 | 0-6 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
 T. Vogel C · #6 | 17 | 11 | 4-8 | 0-1 | 3-6 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 2 |
 J. Wright G · #12 | 16 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 S. Francis G · #8 | 6 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 J. Calloway G · #4 | 9 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 D. Davenport G · #2 | 11 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 S. Sims G · #23 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 M. Blackwell G · #1 | 20 | 4 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 L. Kurtz G · #13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 47 | 17-52 | 0-7 | 13-20 | 24 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 0 | 11 | 13 | 16 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| EIU | IOWA | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 17-52 | 33-52 |
| FG% | 33 | 63 |
| 3PT | 0-7 | 14-30 |
| 3P% | 0 | 47 |
| FT | 13-20 | 11-17 |
| FT% | 65 | 65 |
| REB | 24 | 39 |
| OR | 11 | 9 |
| DR | 13 | 30 |
| AST | 10 | 25 |
| STL | 8 | 11 |
| BLK | 0 | 4 |
| TO | 13 | 15 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 13 | 15 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 12 | 21 |
| FBPs | 0 | 7 |
| PIP | 30 | 38 |
| PF | 16 | 17 |
| LL | 2 | 44 |
| LC | 1 | 1 |
| LPCT | 0 | 96 |
At lock EIU 52.49–82.37 IOWA · IOWA by 29.9 pts vs EIU +34.5 · 58% is the confidence saved at lock
MissG. Welch · EIU
15 MIN · 2 PTSC. Manyawu · IOWA
10 MIN · 5 PTSPeyton McCollum · IOWA
STAT · 21 MIN · 14 PTS · 5-9 FG · 4-7 3PTTy'Reek Coleman · IOWA
STAT · 22 MIN · 13 PTS · 5-5 FG · 1-1 3PTTanner Vogel · EIU
STAT · 17 MIN · 11 PTS · 4-8 FG · 0-1 3PTTrey Thompson · IOWA
STAT · 13 MIN · 11 PTS · 4-6 FG · 3-5 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
E Illinois vs Iowa pick result · Nov 6, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is EIU +34.5, with a 58% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day