Wagner Seahawks at UConn Huskies
Final · truTV
41–83Last shot · Cam Estevez misses 12-foot pullup jump shot
At lock: projected WAG 53.75–86.75 CONN
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 8, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2321655163
- Winner: UConn (100%)
- Spread: WAG +38.5 covers (68%)
- Total: Over 140.5 (50%)
- Score error (both teams)17
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
WAG 53.75–86.75 CONN · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseCONN +12.1 off · WAG +7.0 off, shrunk 20%
- Home field+3.4 pts to CONN
- RecordCONN 3-0 · WAG 0-3
- Market priorBlended 84% toward CONN -39.5 / total 139.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAG | 18 | 23 | 41 |
| CONN | 44 | 39 | 83 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 10:3031–71
Cam Estevez makes 29-foot three point jumper
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 9:5931–73
Jayden Ross makes layup (Oskar Giltay assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 8:3631–76
Braylon Mullins makes 24-foot three point jumper (Silas Demary Jr. assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 7:0433–76
Taj Bryant makes 11-foot step back jumpshot
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 6:3233–79
Silas Demary Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Braylon Mullins assists)
- FT2nd Half 5:1733–80
Egor Amosov makes free throw 1 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:4435–80
AJ Rodriguez makes layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:0637–80
AJ Rodriguez makes driving layup
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 2:0637–82
Jacob Ross makes 0-foot tip in layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:4339–82
AJ Rodriguez makes 5-foot hook shot
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:0041–82
Youssouf Singare makes layup
- FT2nd Half 0:3041–83
Elmir Dzafic makes free throw 1 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| WAG | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 T. Jones F · #7 | 17 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 AJ Rodriguez F · #8 | 32 | 10 | 5-8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
 Y. Singarè C · #24 | 26 | 5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
 T. Bryant G · #1 | 28 | 6 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
 C. Estevez G · #3 | 25 | 9 | 3-11 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 F. Hassan F · #9 | 3 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
 K. Watson F · #13 | 21 | 7 | 2-8 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
 B. Smith Jr. C · #5 | 8 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
 W. Patterson Jr. C · #2 | 6 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
 G. Edwards G · #10 | 14 | 0 | 0-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 J. Curtis G · #0 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 R. Pettis G · #6 | 17 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 D. Kaba F · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 L. McGrady G · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 41 | 17-51 | 4-17 | 3-4 | 33 | 6 | 26 | 9 | 1 | 15 | 18 | 20 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| WAG | CONN | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 17-51 | 28-64 |
| FG% | 33 | 44 |
| 3PT | 4-17 | 9-30 |
| 3P% | 24 | 30 |
| FT | 3-4 | 18-24 |
| FT% | 75 | 75 |
| REB | 33 | 39 |
| OR | 15 | 22 |
| DR | 18 | 17 |
| AST | 6 | 16 |
| STL | 9 | 14 |
| BLK | 1 | 8 |
| TO | 26 | 11 |
| TTO | 2 | 0 |
| ToTO | 26 | 11 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 5 | 37 |
| FBPs | 0 | 14 |
| PIP | 22 | 38 |
| PF | 20 | 12 |
| LL | 0 | 47 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 99 |
At lock WAG 53.75–86.75 CONN · CONN by 33.0 pts vs WAG +38.5 · 59% is the confidence saved at lock
MissT. Jones · WAG
17 MIN · 2 PTSN. Khamenia · CONN
7 MIN · 11 PTSSilas Demary Jr. · CONN
STAT · 27 MIN · 18 PTS · 7-12 FG · 2-6 3PTJayden Ross · CONN
STAT · 26 MIN · 12 PTS · 5-7 FG · 2-3 3PTAJ Rodriguez · WAG
STAT · 32 MIN · 10 PTS · 5-8 FG · 0-2 3PTNa'jai Hines · CONN
STAT · 22 MIN · 10 PTS · 4-7 FG · 2-2 FT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Wagner vs UConn pick result · Nov 9, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is WAG +38.5, with a 59% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day