Monmouth Hawks at St. John's Red Storm
Final · ESPN+
63–78Last shot · Madison Durr makes 9-foot turnaround jump shot
At lock: projected MONM 64.05–88.17 SJU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 2:47 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 124625717
- Winner: St John's (98%)
- Spread: MONM +27.5 covers (61%)
- Total: Under 153.5 (57%)
- Score error (both teams)11
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
MONM 64.05–88.17 SJU · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseSJU +0.0 off · MONM +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to SJU
- Market priorBlended 86% toward SJU -27.5 / total 154.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MONM | 29 | 34 | 63 |
| SJU | 45 | 33 | 78 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 5:0851–67
Jakai Sanders makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:3052–67
Jakai Sanders makes free throw 2 of 2
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 4:0752–69
Keyshawn Hall makes 2-foot dunk (Quinn Ellis assists)
- FT2nd Half 3:2853–69
Madison Durr makes free throw 1 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:1353–72
Tounde Yessoufou makes 25-foot three point jumper (Keyshawn Hall assists)
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 2:1253–74
Babacar Sane makes 2-foot dunk (Quinn Ellis assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:4856–74
Ashton Walker makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jakai Sanders assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:0459–74
Jakai Sanders makes 28-foot three point jumper (Ashton Walker assists)
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 0:5459–76
Babacar Sane makes 2-foot dunk (Tounde Yessoufou assists)
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 0:3461–76
Stefanos Spartalis makes 0-foot tip in layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:3361–78
Tounde Yessoufou makes driving layup (Kyle Cuffe Jr. assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:1863–78
Madison Durr makes 9-foot turnaround jump shot
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| MONM | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 S. Spartalis F · #10 | 32 | 6 | 3-8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
 S. Osei F · #44 | 16 | 4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
 A. Walker G · #1 | 27 | 11 | 5-12 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
 Lo Walker G · #0 | 11 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
 J. Sanders G · #2 | 27 | 17 | 5-7 | 4-5 | 3-5 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
S S. Marjanovic F · #31 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 O. Harvey F · #8 | 6 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 J. Dobuol G · #24 | 17 | 7 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
 M. Durr G · #11 | 26 | 15 | 5-11 | 1-3 | 4-7 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 J. Collins G · #13 | 36 | 3 | 1-6 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
D D. Perry F · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 Q. Peters F · #42 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
J J. Harris G · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
T T. Brooks Jr. G · #3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 Z. Griffin G · #20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 L. Orchard G · #9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Leahy G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 63 | 24-56 | 8-20 | 7-14 | 31 | 12 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 19 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MONM | SJU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 24-56 | 26-62 |
| FG% | 43 | 42 |
| 3PT | 8-20 | 6-20 |
| 3P% | 40 | 30 |
| FT | 7-14 | 20-25 |
| FT% | 50 | 80 |
| REB | 31 | 40 |
| OR | 5 | 12 |
| DR | 26 | 28 |
| AST | 12 | 15 |
| STL | 6 | 14 |
| BLK | 5 | 3 |
| TO | 18 | 13 |
| TTO | 1 | 1 |
| ToTO | 18 | 13 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 14 | 21 |
| FBPs | 4 | 16 |
| PIP | 28 | 38 |
| PF | 19 | 16 |
| LL | 2 | 21 |
| LC | 1 | 1 |
| LPCT | 1 | 98 |
At lock MONM 64.05–88.17 SJU · SJU by 24.1 pts vs MONM +27.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
HitS. Spartalis · MONM
32 MIN · 6 PTSR. Prey · SJU
25 MIN · 2 PTSKeyshawn Hall · SJU
STAT · 33 MIN · 26 PTS · 9-16 FG · 1-3 3PTJakai Sanders · MONM
STAT · 27 MIN · 17 PTS · 5-7 FG · 4-5 3PTMadison Durr · MONM
STAT · 26 MIN · 15 PTS · 5-11 FG · 1-3 3PTIan Jackson · SJU
STAT · 22 MIN · 15 PTS · 6-12 FG · 3-5 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Monmouth vs St John's pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is MONM +27.5, with a 55% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day