Bucknell Bison at Virginia Cavaliers
Final · ACC Network
61–95Last shot · Kellen Welch misses driving layup
At lock: projected BUCK 58.95–93.79 UVA
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 10, 2:19 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 843142254
- Winner: Virginia (100%)
- Spread: BUCK +38.5 covers (63%)
- Total: Over 151.5 (57%)
- Score error (both teams)3
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
BUCK 58.95–93.79 UVA · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseUVA +14.8 off · BUCK +3.4 off, shrunk 27%
- Home field+3.4 pts to UVA
- RecordUVA 4-0 · BUCK 0-3
- Market priorBlended 84% toward UVA -38.5 / total 151.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUCK | 31 | 30 | 61 |
| UVA | 53 | 42 | 95 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 4:5354–87
Jayden Williams makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:5355–87
Jayden Williams makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:3555–89
Jurian Dixon makes 10-foot floating jump shot (Jan Vide assists)
- FT2nd Half 3:4755–90
Jan Vide makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:4755–91
Jan Vide makes free throw 2 of 2
- XP2nd Half 3:3356–91
Patrick O'Brien makes free throw 1 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:1658–91
Luca Soroa Schaller makes driving layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:0758–93
Carter Lang makes layup
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 1:2058–95
Favour Ibe makes 0-foot tip in layup
- FT2nd Half 0:5159–95
Kyle Marshall makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:0560–95
Mert Kocagozoglu makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:0561–95
Mert Kocagozoglu makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| BUCK | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 L. Soroa Schaller F · #13 | 31 | 6 | 3-8 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
 P. O'Brien F · #0 | 22 | 7 | 2-6 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 R. Lamuno G · #4 | 27 | 10 | 3-7 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
 J. Williams G · #2 | 25 | 4 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
 A. Pachucki G · #3 | 33 | 12 | 5-13 | 2-9 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 E. Marten-Coney F · #9 | 12 | 4 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
 K. Welch F · #32 | 5 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 D. Kennard C · #8 | 4 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 J. Youakim G · #23 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 M. Kocagozoglu G · #12 | 5 | 5 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 L. Soden G · #11 | 18 | 12 | 4-6 | 4-5 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 K. Marshall G · #6 | 15 | 1 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
 M. Lange G · #7 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 A. Rousseau F · #15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 L. Bergseng F · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. Hoctor G · #20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Meachem G · #1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 61 | 20-57 | 11-33 | 10-14 | 29 | 16 | 16 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 17 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| BUCK | UVA | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 20-57 | 37-73 |
| FG% | 35 | 51 |
| 3PT | 11-33 | 12-35 |
| 3P% | 33 | 34 |
| FT | 10-14 | 9-16 |
| FT% | 71 | 56 |
| REB | 29 | 52 |
| OR | 11 | 23 |
| DR | 18 | 29 |
| AST | 16 | 30 |
| STL | 5 | 12 |
| BLK | 5 | 11 |
| TO | 16 | 12 |
| TTO | 1 | 1 |
| ToTO | 16 | 12 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 12 | 27 |
| FBPs | 13 | 22 |
| PIP | 16 | 46 |
| PF | 17 | 18 |
| LL | 0 | 37 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 98 |
At lock BUCK 58.95–93.79 UVA · UVA by 34.8 pts vs BUCK +38.5 · 57% is the confidence saved at lock
HitL. Soroa Schaller · BUCK
31 MIN · 6 PTSN. Adekunle · UVA
19 MIN · 14 PTSChance Mallory · UVA
STAT · 21 MIN · 16 PTS · 6-9 FG · 3-5 3PTThijs De Ridder · UVA
STAT · 21 MIN · 15 PTS · 6-10 FG · 3-5 3PTJohann Grunloh · UVA
STAT · 21 MIN · 13 PTS · 5-9 FG · 0-2 3PTAleksander Pachucki · BUCK
STAT · 33 MIN · 12 PTS · 5-13 FG · 2-9 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Bucknell vs Virginia pick result · Nov 10, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is BUCK +38.5, with a 57% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day