Arkansas Razorbacks at Virginia Cavaliers
Final · ESPN
72–91Last shot · Christian Harmon misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
At lock: projected ARK 80.43–82.79 UVA
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 8:50 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 859919873
- Winner: Virginia (58%)
- Spread: UVA -2.5 covers (51%)
- Total: Over 162.5 (55%)
- Score error (both teams)17
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
ARK 80.43–82.79 UVA · Medium confidence
Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexUVA +15.2 vs ARK +13.4 · pred margin +4.6
- Attack / defenseUVA +23.4 off · ARK +21.5 off, shrunk 20%
- Home field+3.4 pts to UVA
- RecordUVA 3-0 · ARK 1-1
- Market priorBlended 71% toward UVA -4.5 / total 162.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARK | 27 | 45 | 72 |
| UVA | 46 | 45 | 91 |
Scoring plays
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 4:3563–81
Billy Richmond III makes 2-foot dunk (Jordan Smith Jr. assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:3466–81
Jeremiah Wilkinson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Billy Richmond III assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:1266–83
Sam Lewis makes driving layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:5268–83
Jeremiah Wilkinson makes driving layup
- FT2nd Half 2:0968–84
Sam Lewis makes free throw 1 of 3
- FT2nd Half 2:0968–85
Sam Lewis makes free throw 2 of 3
- FT2nd Half 2:0968–86
Sam Lewis makes free throw 3 of 3
- FT2nd Half 1:4969–86
Billy Richmond III makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:4970–86
Billy Richmond III makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:2770–89
Chance Mallory makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:0770–91
Nolan Adekunle makes driving layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:4772–91
Billy Richmond III makes 10-foot pullup jump shot
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| ARK | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 M. Muurinen F · #3 | 19 | 12 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 4-5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
 C. Bowser F · #21 | 29 | 3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 2 |
 J. Wilkinson G · #5 | 20 | 11 | 4-9 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
 J. Smith Jr. G · #23 | 31 | 19 | 8-17 | 1-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 B. Richmond III G · #24 | 31 | 11 | 4-6 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
 I. Frolov F · #14 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 A. Toure F · #1 | 16 | 10 | 4-8 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 C. Ourigou F · #0 | 6 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 JJ Andrews F · #7 | 10 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
 M. Maker F · #8 | 22 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
 D. Thompson G · #9 | 18 | 6 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
 P. Semedo F · #99 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 I. Sealy F · #30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. Kelley G · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. Brown G · #2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 72 | 27-59 | 7-19 | 11-18 | 36 | 10 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 21 | 17 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| ARK | UVA | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 27-59 | 32-69 |
| FG% | 46 | 46 |
| 3PT | 7-19 | 12-32 |
| 3P% | 37 | 38 |
| FT | 11-18 | 15-20 |
| FT% | 61 | 75 |
| REB | 36 | 40 |
| OR | 15 | 19 |
| DR | 21 | 21 |
| AST | 10 | 18 |
| STL | 4 | 11 |
| BLK | 10 | 6 |
| TO | 15 | 9 |
| TTO | 0 | 1 |
| ToTO | 15 | 9 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 6 | 24 |
| FBPs | 13 | 14 |
| PIP | 38 | 40 |
| PF | 17 | 16 |
| LL | 3 | 27 |
| LC | 5 | 5 |
| LPCT | 12 | 86 |
At lock ARK 80.43–82.79 UVA · 0.7 pts over 162.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
HitM. Muurinen · ARK
19 MIN · 12 PTSN. Adekunle · UVA
32 MIN · 13 PTSJordan Smith Jr. · ARK
STAT · 31 MIN · 19 PTS · 8-17 FG · 1-2 3PTThijs De Ridder · UVA
STAT · 24 MIN · 16 PTS · 7-13 FG · 2-4 3PTSam Lewis · UVA
STAT · 34 MIN · 16 PTS · 5-15 FG · 3-8 3PTJohann Grunloh · UVA
STAT · 35 MIN · 15 PTS · 5-9 FG · 0-2 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Arkansas vs Virginia pick result · Nov 8, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 162.5, with a 51% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day