Central Connecticut Blue Devils at Dartmouth Big Green
Final/OT · ESPN+
78–71Last shot · Cameron McNamee misses 22-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected CCSU 66.78–74.88 DART
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 8:50 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3386702719
- Winner: Dartmouth (93%)
- Score error (both teams)24
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
CCSU 66.78–74.88 DART · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseDART +12.7 off · CCSU +3.0 off, shrunk 20%
- Home field+3.4 pts to DART
- RecordDART 2-1 · CCSU 1-2
- Market priorBlended 84% toward DART -8.5 / total 140.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCSU | 33 | 33 | 12 | 78 |
| DART | 30 | 36 | 5 | 71 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:5864–66
Anton Strelnikov makes 3-foot jumper
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:4266–66
Raphel Laurent makes layup
- FTOT 3:5866–67
Anton Strelnikov makes free throw 1 of 2
- FTOT 3:0666–68
Cam Hiatt makes free throw 1 of 2
- FTOT 3:0666–69
Cam Hiatt makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOTOT 2:3468–69
Jayden Mott makes 7-foot jumper
- JUMPSHOTOT 1:4671–69
Victor Payne Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper
- JUMPSHOTOT 1:0274–69
Victor Payne Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jhace Johnson assists)
- LAYUPSHOTOT 0:5174–71
Anton Strelnikov makes layup
- LAYUPSHOTOT 0:2176–71
James Jones makes layup (Jhace Johnson assists)
- FTOT 0:1177–71
Raphel Laurent makes free throw 1 of 2
- FTOT 0:1178–71
Raphel Laurent makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| CCSU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 J. Mott F · #11 | 32 | 8 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
 J. Johnson G · #2 | 34 | 9 | 3-8 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
 A. Reynolds G · #13 | 29 | 13 | 5-9 | 0-2 | 3-3 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3 |
 R. Laurent G · #1 | 34 | 10 | 2-9 | 0-2 | 6-8 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 |
 J. Jones G · #24 | 39 | 15 | 7-12 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
 R. Tibby F · #23 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 B. Jackson F · #7 | 13 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 M. Goodwin G · #6 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 E. Parker G · #0 | 15 | 4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
 V. Payne Jr. G · #15 | 27 | 17 | 6-9 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
 C. Gretz F · #21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Ervin F · #14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Langdon F · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. James F · #22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. Smith G · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 R. Jones G · #3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 78 | 29-58 | 9-22 | 11-13 | 33 | 13 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 24 | 17 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| CCSU | DART | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 29-58 | 25-65 |
| FG% | 50 | 38 |
| 3PT | 9-22 | 7-32 |
| 3P% | 41 | 22 |
| FT | 11-13 | 14-20 |
| FT% | 85 | 70 |
| REB | 33 | 33 |
| OR | 9 | 15 |
| DR | 24 | 18 |
| AST | 13 | 9 |
| STL | 6 | 11 |
| BLK | 1 | 3 |
| TO | 13 | 14 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 13 | 14 |
| TECH | 1 | 1 |
| TECH | 1 | 1 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 16 | 11 |
| FBPs | 2 | 4 |
| PIP | 36 | 36 |
| PF | 17 | 13 |
| LL | 7 | 7 |
| LC | 16 | 16 |
| LPCT | 43 | 49 |
At lock CCSU 66.78–74.88 DART · DART by 8.1 pts vs DART -6.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
MissJ. Mott · CCSU
32 MIN · 8 PTSD. Civello · DART
13 MIN · 4 PTSCameron McNamee · DART
STAT · 30 MIN · 20 PTS · 6-12 FG · 4-10 3PTVictor Payne Jr. · CCSU
STAT · 27 MIN · 17 PTS · 6-9 FG · 5-8 3PTJames Jones · CCSU
STAT · 39 MIN · 15 PTS · 7-12 FG · 1-3 3PTAnton Strelnikov · DART
STAT · 24 MIN · 15 PTS · 6-12 FG · 0-1 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
C Connecticut vs Dartmouth pick result · Nov 8, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is DART -6.5, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day