Longwood Lancers at Saint Joseph's Hawks
Final · ESPN+
73–82Last shot · Khaafiq Myers makes driving layup
At lock: projected LONG 70.43–79.06 JOES
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 3, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 4246028470
- Winner: Saint Joseph's (77%)
- Spread: LONG +9.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Over 149.5 (50%)
- Score error (both teams)5
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
LONG 70.43–79.06 JOES · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseJOES +0.0 off · LONG +34.5 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to JOES
- RecordJOES 1-0 · LONG 1-1
- Market priorBlended 86% toward JOES -11.5 / total 152.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LONG | 28 | 45 | 73 |
| JOES | 40 | 42 | 82 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 2:1968–73
TJ Robinson makes free throw 1 of 1
- FT2nd Half 2:1068–74
Sean Logan makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:5969–74
TJ Robinson makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:5970–74
TJ Robinson makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:2970–76
Khaafiq Myers makes 7-foot jumper
- FT2nd Half 1:0870–77
Khaafiq Myers makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:0870–78
Khaafiq Myers makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:5272–78
Jaylen Benard makes layup (Alphonzo Billups III assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:4472–79
Jaiden Glover-Toscano makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:3973–79
Kany Musungay makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:1573–80
Khaafiq Myers makes free throw 1 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:0373–82
Khaafiq Myers makes driving layup
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| LONG | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 L. Milosevic F · #27 | 13 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 K. Musungay F · #23 | 18 | 4 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 2-4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
 MJ Williams G · #11 | 33 | 14 | 5-10 | 4-8 | 0-2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
 J. Benard G · #4 | 30 | 13 | 5-15 | 2-10 | 1-3 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 2 |
 A. Billups III G · #3 | 34 | 17 | 6-14 | 4-9 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
 I. Kalala F · #8 | 12 | 6 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
 D. Kauzonas F · #16 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 W. Dopfer G · #14 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 E. Thomas G · #5 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 J. Aav G · #0 | 17 | 3 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 TJ Robinson G · #2 | 20 | 13 | 4-11 | 0-3 | 5-7 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
 E. Kelly G · #1 | 18 | 3 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
 A. Yarmah G · #7 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 G. Burr III G · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 B. Wesson G · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 73 | 26-70 | 11-42 | 10-21 | 44 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 14 | 30 | 25 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| LONG | JOES | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 26-70 | 28-63 |
| FG% | 37 | 44 |
| 3PT | 11-42 | 8-26 |
| 3P% | 26 | 31 |
| FT | 10-21 | 18-31 |
| FT% | 48 | 58 |
| REB | 44 | 45 |
| OR | 14 | 11 |
| DR | 30 | 34 |
| AST | 13 | 15 |
| STL | 5 | 7 |
| BLK | 0 | 8 |
| TO | 12 | 9 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 12 | 9 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 5 | 9 |
| FBPs | 19 | 11 |
| PIP | 30 | 36 |
| PF | 25 | 17 |
| LL | 4 | 15 |
| LC | 5 | 5 |
| LPCT | 10 | 83 |
At lock LONG 70.43–79.06 JOES · JOES by 8.6 pts vs LONG +9.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
HitL. Milosevic · LONG
13 MIN · 0-4 FGD. Kemper · JOES
9 MIN · 0-1 FGJaiden Glover-Toscano · JOES
STAT · 31 MIN · 22 PTS · 7-10 FG · 3-5 3PTAlphonzo Billups III · LONG
STAT · 34 MIN · 17 PTS · 6-14 FG · 4-9 3PTKhaafiq Myers · JOES
STAT · 31 MIN · 17 PTS · 6-12 FG · 0-3 3PTBJ Ranson · JOES
STAT · 24 MIN · 17 PTS · 6-13 FG · 3-6 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Longwood vs Saint Joseph's pick result · Nov 4, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is LONG +9.5, with a 51% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day