NCAABSun 5:00 PM CTWorthington Arena

Cal Poly Mustangs at Montana State Bobcats

TV · ESPN+

Cal PolyMontana St

Sun 5:00 PM CT

Lean · SpreadNot a strong play

CP +7.5

-115 at lock53%

Model projects CP 80.02 – 86.24 MTST · below the strong-play bar (edge -0.7%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

H. Mousa · CP
Guard
C. Ward · CP
Guard
J. Davis · MTST
Guard
C. Holden · MTST
Guard

Projected prop · Hamad Mousa (CP) 21.38 pts · 20.75 pts/game this season, × 1.03 for the projected CP score

Line not posted yet

Cal Poly Mustangs

2-2 · W1

316 PF · 339 PA

80.02

Projected

Montana State Bobcats

1-2 · L1

228 PF · 240 PA

86.24

CP 29%MTST 71%

At lock: projected CP 80.02–86.24 MTST

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

The model

How this number was built

CP 80.02–86.24 MTST · Medium confidence

Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Attack / defense
MTST +0.7 off · CP +2.3 off, shrunk 27%
Home field
+3.4 pts to MTST
Record
MTST 1-2 · CP 2-2
Market prior
Blended 69% toward MTST -7.5 / total 166.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Hamad Mousa
PTS 20.8
Hamad Mousa
REB 5.5
Cayden Ward
AST 2.8

Jeremiah Davis
PTS 16.0
Jeremiah Davis
REB 5.7
Cavin Holden
AST 3.7

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	CP	MTST
STRK	W1	L1
OPP PPG	84.8	80.0
PTS	79.0	76.0
FG%	43	45
3P%	34	34
REB	41.0	32.0
AST	13.5	12.7
BLK	3.0	1.3
STL	6.0	8.0
TTO	0.0	0.3
ToTO	17.8	12.0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Cal Poly vs Montana St prediction · Nov 15, 2026

The model projects Cal Poly 80.0, Montana St 86.2. Model win probability: Montana St 71%, Cal Poly 29%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day