UMBC Retrievers at George Mason Patriots
Final · ESPN+
54–82Last shot · Devin Ceaser misses 24-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected UMBC 65.34–80.86 GMU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 1, 11:01 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1841305743
- Winner: George Mason (91%)
- Spread: UMBC +17.5 covers (57%)
- Total: Under 146.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)13
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
UMBC 65.34–80.86 GMU · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseGMU +0.0 off · UMBC +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to GMU
- Market priorBlended 86% toward GMU -19.5 / total 147.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UMBC | 27 | 27 | 54 |
| GMU | 33 | 49 | 82 |
Scoring plays
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:2448–71
Elijah Jones makes layup
- FT2nd Half 3:5048–72
Brayden O'Connor makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:5048–73
Brayden O'Connor makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:4149–73
Devin Ceaser makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:4150–73
Devin Ceaser makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:0050–76
Malik Presley makes 24-foot three point jumper
- FT2nd Half 1:4751–76
Jaiden Reynolds makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:4752–76
Jaiden Reynolds makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:3752–78
Bryton Barrett makes layup
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 1:0452–80
Shane Pendergrass makes 0-foot tip in layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:4454–80
Devin Ceaser makes driving layup
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 0:2954–82
Shane Pendergrass makes 2-foot dunk
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| UMBC | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 R. Jacobs F · #23 | 23 | 4 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
 A. Able G · #4 | 29 | 13 | 5-12 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
 F. Burton G · #1 | 28 | 11 | 5-17 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 |
 J. Ristic G · #12 | 23 | 3 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
 D. Ceaser G · #13 | 23 | 11 | 4-18 | 1-8 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
 A. Barry F · #21 | 9 | 4 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
 S. Huan F · #10 | 10 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
 JP Ndong F · #2 | 17 | 3 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
 J. Reynolds G · #11 | 9 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 C. Varela G · #5 | 29 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 |
 R. Ciunys F · #0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 L. Ferry G · #22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 T. Slating G · #15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 E. Morton G · #3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. Cross G · #95 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 54 | 20-72 | 8-31 | 6-7 | 40 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 15 | 25 | 19 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| UMBC | GMU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 20-72 | 28-68 |
| FG% | 28 | 41 |
| 3PT | 8-31 | 9-30 |
| 3P% | 26 | 30 |
| FT | 6-7 | 17-22 |
| FT% | 86 | 77 |
| REB | 40 | 54 |
| OR | 15 | 17 |
| DR | 25 | 37 |
| AST | 11 | 14 |
| STL | 6 | 6 |
| BLK | 3 | 3 |
| TO | 12 | 10 |
| TTO | 2 | 0 |
| ToTO | 12 | 10 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 19 | 22 |
| FBPs | 4 | 19 |
| PIP | 12 | 36 |
| PF | 19 | 11 |
| LL | 0 | 28 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 99 |
At lock UMBC 65.34–80.86 GMU · GMU by 15.5 pts vs UMBC +17.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
MissR. Jacobs · UMBC
23 MIN · 4 PTSE. Kanga · GMU
24 MIN · 6 PTSEfeosa Oliogu-Elabor · GMU
STAT · 25 MIN · 17 PTS · 7-12 FG · 2-4 3PTAidan Able · UMBC
STAT · 29 MIN · 13 PTS · 5-12 FG · 3-8 3PTElijah Jones · GMU
STAT · 25 MIN · 13 PTS · 5-12 FG · 3-7 3PTMakhai Valentine · GMU
STAT · 23 MIN · 12 PTS · 3-8 FG · 1-6 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
UMBC vs George Mason pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is UMBC +17.5, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day