Stonehill Skyhawks at Columbia Lions
Final · ESPN+
55–75Last shot · Amare Allen makes free throw 2 of 2
At lock: projected STO 66.49–79.05 COLU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 9, 9:01 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2588338949
- Winner: Columbia (87%)
- Spread: STO +13.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Over 144.5 (57%)
- Score error (both teams)16
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
STO 66.49–79.05 COLU · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseCOLU +12.4 off · STO +4.0 off, shrunk 20%
- Home field+3.4 pts to COLU
- RecordCOLU 2-1 · STO 1-2
- Market priorBlended 70% toward COLU -13.5 / total 143.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| STO | 36 | 19 | 55 |
| COLU | 34 | 41 | 75 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 5:1447–63
Connor Igoe makes 24-foot three point jumper (Mason Ritter assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:3647–66
Gerard O'Keefe makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
- FT2nd Half 4:1648–66
Ewan Steele makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:1649–66
Ewan Steele makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:5949–68
Gerard O'Keefe makes 13-foot turnaround jump shot
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:3249–70
Gerard O'Keefe makes 16-foot pullup jump shot
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:0449–72
Hampton Sanders makes layup (Mason Ritter assists)
- FT2nd Half 2:2549–73
Mason Ritter makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:5752–73
Felipe Patino makes 23-foot three point jumper
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:5054–73
Kemar Grant makes driving layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:2054–75
Gabe Hornberger makes 16-foot jumper (Josh Pratt assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:0855–75
Amare Allen makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| STO | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 P. McGuinn F · #31 | 22 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
 E. Steele F · #20 | 25 | 8 | 2-10 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 2 |
 T. Ruth G · #2 | 17 | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 E. Greenberg G · #1 | 26 | 3 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 3-4 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
 F. Patino G · #12 | 28 | 15 | 6-10 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
 J. Medalie F · #5 | 11 | 3 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
 D. Cheng C · #34 | 4 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 K. Grant G · #10 | 3 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 A. Allen G · #11 | 16 | 3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
 A. Boldin Jr. G · #4 | 14 | 4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
 D. Arlington G · #22 | 25 | 9 | 3-7 | 1-1 | 2-4 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 |
 W. Batchelder G · #3 | 9 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 B. Leons F · #32 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. Langley G · #13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Byrne G · #21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 N. Jenpa G · #15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 55 | 18-48 | 6-23 | 13-22 | 35 | 12 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 27 | 15 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| STO | COLU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 18-48 | 27-69 |
| FG% | 38 | 39 |
| 3PT | 6-23 | 14-32 |
| 3P% | 26 | 44 |
| FT | 13-22 | 7-12 |
| FT% | 59 | 58 |
| REB | 35 | 45 |
| OR | 8 | 18 |
| DR | 27 | 27 |
| AST | 12 | 15 |
| STL | 3 | 5 |
| BLK | 7 | 4 |
| TO | 14 | 8 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 14 | 8 |
| TECH | 1 | 1 |
| TECH | 1 | 1 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 4 | 16 |
| FBPs | 10 | 7 |
| PIP | 24 | 18 |
| PF | 15 | 21 |
| LL | 11 | 24 |
| LC | 5 | 5 |
| LPCT | 52 | 43 |
At lock STO 66.49–79.05 COLU · COLU by 12.6 pts vs STO +13.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
MissP. McGuinn · STO
22 MIN · 2 PTSC. Igoe · COLU
30 MIN · 9 PTSGerard O'Keefe · COLU
STAT · 26 MIN · 22 PTS · 8-14 FG · 4-6 3PTFelipe Patino · STO
STAT · 28 MIN · 15 PTS · 6-10 FG · 3-7 3PTHampton Sanders · COLU
STAT · 22 MIN · 14 PTS · 5-14 FG · 4-9 3PTJosiah Cunningham · COLU
STAT · 12 MIN · 12 PTS · 5-8 FG · 1-3 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Stonehill vs Columbia pick result · Nov 9, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is STO +13.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day