Mercyhurst Lakers at James Madison Dukes
TV · ESPN+
@Model projects MERC 62.31 – 75.82 JMU · below the strong-play bar (edge +0.8%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
J. Lemelman · MERC
GuardD. Agbaosi · MERC
ForwardB. Lee · JMU
GuardG. Sundra · JMU
ForwardK.J. Windham · JMU
Guard
Projected prop · Brandon Lee (JMU) 16.98 pts · 17.00 pts/game this season, × 1.00 for the projected JMU score
At lock: projected MERC 62.31–75.82 JMU
The model
How this number was built
MERC 62.31–75.82 JMU · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseJMU +0.7 off · MERC -4.4 off, shrunk 27%
- Home field+3.4 pts to JMU
- RecordJMU 1-2 · MERC 1-3
- Market priorBlended 83% toward JMU -15.5 / total 138.5
Season leaders
Jake LemelmanPTS 16.8
Deraje AgbaosiREB 6.8- Jake LemelmanAST 6.0
Brandon LeePTS 17.0
Garrett SundraREB 7.0
K.J. WindhamAST 3.7
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MERC | JMU | |
|---|---|---|
| STRK | L1 | W1 |
| OPP PPG | 70.8 | 78.7 |
| PTS | 61.3 | 76.0 |
| FG% | 38 | 39 |
| 3P% | 21 | 35 |
| REB | 33.8 | 38.7 |
| AST | 14.3 | 15.0 |
| BLK | 4.5 | 1.3 |
| STL | 9.8 | 6.3 |
| TTO | 1.8 | 0.3 |
| ToTO | 14.8 | 10.0 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Mercyhurst vs James Madison prediction · Nov 15, 2026
The model projects Mercyhurst 62.3, James Madison 75.8. Model win probability: James Madison 88%, Mercyhurst 12%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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