Mercyhurst Lakers at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Final · ACCNX
56–83Last shot · Hunter Te Ratana misses 24-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected MERC 59.04–78.47 ND
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 2:17 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 491533932
- Winner: Notre Dame (96%)
- Spread: MERC +21.5 covers (57%)
- Total: Over 137.5 (50%)
- Score error (both teams)7
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
MERC 59.04–78.47 ND · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseND +22.2 off · MERC +12.5 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to ND
- RecordND 2-0 · MERC 0-2
- Market priorBlended 85% toward ND -21.5 / total 137.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MERC | 23 | 33 | 56 |
| ND | 38 | 45 | 83 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 6:0241–78
Braeden Shrewsberry makes 23-foot three point jumper (Braeden Smith assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 5:4043–78
Markus Maxwell-Grimes makes driving layup (Shane Kirker assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 5:1946–78
Geoff Sprouse makes 24-foot three point jumper (Markus Maxwell-Grimes assists)
- FT2nd Half 5:0646–79
Logan Imes makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 5:0646–80
Logan Imes makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:2047–80
Markus Maxwell-Grimes makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:2048–80
Markus Maxwell-Grimes makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:1049–80
Shane Kirker makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:4449–83
Jonathan Sanderson makes 25-foot three point jumper
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:2152–83
Jake Lemelman makes 24-foot three point jumper (Shane Kirker assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:4654–83
Jake Lemelman makes driving layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:0756–83
Chris Leman makes 8-foot jumper (Markus Maxwell-Grimes assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| MERC | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 C. Johnson F · #3 | 31 | 9 | 4-11 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
 D. Agbaosi F · #23 | 27 | 6 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 4-6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
 Or Faran G · #32 | 13 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 J. Lemelman G · #11 | 29 | 18 | 6-13 | 2-4 | 4-4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 G. Sprouse G · #12 | 34 | 9 | 3-5 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 |
 S. Kirker F · #0 | 14 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
 C. Leman F · #13 | 7 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
H H. Te Ratana G · #5 | 25 | 2 | 1-9 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
 M. Maxwell-Grimes G · #1 | 20 | 9 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
 T. Rainwater F · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
S S. Sakihama G · #17 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 B. Conner G · #2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. Kelly G · #7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Jackson G · #44 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Pierce NA · #8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 56 | 19-51 | 7-24 | 11-14 | 22 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 16 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MERC | ND | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 19-51 | 28-52 |
| FG% | 37 | 54 |
| 3PT | 7-24 | 15-32 |
| 3P% | 29 | 47 |
| FT | 11-14 | 12-14 |
| FT% | 79 | 86 |
| REB | 22 | 35 |
| OR | 5 | 9 |
| DR | 17 | 26 |
| AST | 12 | 15 |
| STL | 10 | 5 |
| BLK | 4 | 2 |
| TO | 11 | 13 |
| TTO | 3 | 1 |
| ToTO | 11 | 13 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 13 | 18 |
| FBPs | 2 | 10 |
| PIP | 12 | 24 |
| PF | 16 | 12 |
| LL | 0 | 37 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 99 |
At lock MERC 59.04–78.47 ND · ND by 19.4 pts vs MERC +21.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock
MissC. Johnson · MERC
31 MIN · 9 PTSB. Koehler · ND
22 MIN · 17 PTSJake Lemelman · MERC
STAT · 29 MIN · 18 PTS · 6-13 FG · 2-4 3PTEthan Roberts · ND
STAT · 23 MIN · 18 PTS · 6-7 FG · 3-4 3PTBraeden Shrewsberry · ND
STAT · 27 MIN · 17 PTS · 6-12 FG · 5-10 3PTGeoff Sprouse · MERC
STAT · 34 MIN · 9 PTS · 3-5 FG · 3-5 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Mercyhurst vs Notre Dame pick result · Nov 5, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is MERC +21.5, with a 54% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day