Chicago State Cougars at Incarnate Word Cardinals
Final · ESPN+
66–54Last shot · D'Arrae Goodwin makes free throw 2 of 2
At lock: projected CHST 69.14–75.45 UIW
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 4, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3190895583
- Winner: Incarnate Word (61%)
- Score error (both teams)23
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
CHST 69.14–75.45 UIW · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseUIW +12.5 off · CHST +21.9 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to UIW
- RecordUIW 0-2 · CHST 1-1
- Market priorBlended 71% toward UIW -8.5 / total 142.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHST | 34 | 32 | 66 |
| UIW | 22 | 32 | 54 |
Scoring plays
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 3:5258–49
Ben Kalonji makes 0-foot tip in layup
- FT2nd Half 3:2958–50
Ismail Habib makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:2958–51
Ismail Habib makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:5858–52
Godswill Erheriene makes free throw 1 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:3460–52
Foday Sheriff makes 20-foot jumper
- FT2nd Half 2:1561–52
Malek Robinson makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:1562–52
Malek Robinson makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:3164–52
Malik Olafioye makes driving layup
- FT2nd Half 0:5065–52
Malik Olafioye makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:5066–52
Malik Olafioye makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2566–53
D'Arrae Goodwin makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2566–54
D'Arrae Goodwin makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| CHST | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
L L. Stephane Djiya F · #15 | 15 | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 |
 D. Loury F · #1 | 11 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
 M. Robinson G · #9 | 23 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 M. Price G · #8 | 27 | 21 | 6-19 | 2-8 | 7-9 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 |
 W. Lovings-Watts G · #23 | 30 | 6 | 3-11 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
 F. Sheriff F · #2 | 10 | 11 | 5-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
 B. Akanmu F · #24 | 6 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 K. Foman F · #0 | 21 | 4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 2 |
 B. Kalonji C · #10 | 17 | 7 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
 K. Popotte G · #18 | 5 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 N. Graham G · #4 | 10 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
 M. Olafioye G · #11 | 25 | 7 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
 L. Hodges Jr. F · #25 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. Stanton F · #20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. Carraway G · #3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Pazon G · #7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 66 | 24-56 | 3-17 | 15-21 | 47 | 5 | 21 | 9 | 7 | 13 | 34 | 25 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| CHST | UIW | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 24-56 | 14-53 |
| FG% | 43 | 26 |
| 3PT | 3-17 | 3-22 |
| 3P% | 18 | 14 |
| FT | 15-21 | 23-35 |
| FT% | 71 | 66 |
| REB | 47 | 35 |
| OR | 13 | 12 |
| DR | 34 | 23 |
| AST | 5 | 7 |
| STL | 9 | 14 |
| BLK | 7 | 6 |
| TO | 21 | 19 |
| TTO | 1 | 2 |
| ToTO | 21 | 19 |
| TECH | 1 | 2 |
| TECH | 1 | 2 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 21 | 21 |
| FBPs | 10 | 22 |
| PIP | 32 | 22 |
| PF | 25 | 17 |
| LL | 14 | 6 |
| LC | 3 | 3 |
| LPCT | 70 | 20 |
At lock CHST 69.14–75.45 UIW · UIW by 6.3 pts vs CHST +7.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
HitL. Stephane Djiya · CHST
15 MIN · 4 PTSD. Goodwin · UIW
28 MIN · 6 PTSMike Price · CHST
STAT · 27 MIN · 21 PTS · 6-19 FG · 2-8 3PTGodswill Erheriene · UIW
STAT · 35 MIN · 18 PTS · 8-14 FG · 2-5 FTIsmail Habib · UIW
STAT · 33 MIN · 14 PTS · 3-9 FG · 2-5 3PTFoday Sheriff · CHST
STAT · 10 MIN · 11 PTS · 5-7 FG · 1-2 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Chicago St vs Incarnate Word pick result · Nov 5, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is CHST +7.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day