Milwaukee Panthers at TCU Horned Frogs
Final · ESPN+
64–76Last shot · Dylan Omweno misses 26-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected MILW 69.16–89.37 TCU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 12, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 31314816
- Winner: TCU (96%)
- Spread: MILW +23.5 covers (61%)
- Total: Under 158.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)18
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
MILW 69.16–89.37 TCU · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseTCU +9.3 off · MILW +2.3 off, shrunk 27%
- Home field+3.4 pts to TCU
- RecordTCU 4-0 · MILW 2-3
- Market priorBlended 83% toward TCU -22.5 / total 155.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MILW | 33 | 31 | 64 |
| TCU | 36 | 40 | 76 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 4:4155–66
Xavier Edmonds makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:4155–67
Xavier Edmonds makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:2357–67
Dylan Omweno makes 10-foot floating jump shot
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:1457–69
Brock Harding makes driving layup
- FT2nd Half 2:3757–70
Brock Harding makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:3757–71
Brock Harding makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:2659–71
Amare Hereford makes driving layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:0159–73
Brock Harding makes 10-foot turnaround jump shot
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 1:4061–73
Danilo Jovanovich makes 0-foot tip in layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:1361–75
Micah Robinson makes driving layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:5564–75
Dylan Omweno makes 24-foot three point jumper (Amare Hereford assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:4764–76
Brock Harding makes free throw 1 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| MILW | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 C. Jackson F · #11 | 32 | 7 | 2-8 | 0-3 | 3-4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
 Al Amadou F · #21 | 8 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
 D. Jovanovich F · #3 | 36 | 15 | 7-12 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
 A. Hereford G · #1 | 37 | 18 | 8-17 | 1-6 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
 T. Norman G · #5 | 24 | 4 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 |
 N. Malosa F · #35 | 21 | 10 | 4-7 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
 S. Murchison F · #9 | 11 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
 D. Omweno G · #7 | 8 | 7 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 J. Hansen G · #4 | 8 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 A. Womack III G · #24 | 15 | 3 | 1-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
 B. Akoro F · #8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 SJ Young G · #6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 B. Walker G · #0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 I. Dorceus G · #2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. Villarreal G · #23 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Lovelace Jr. G · #22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 64 | 26-64 | 5-20 | 7-9 | 41 | 12 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 32 | 23 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MILW | TCU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 26-64 | 23-64 |
| FG% | 41 | 36 |
| 3PT | 5-20 | 4-19 |
| 3P% | 25 | 21 |
| FT | 7-9 | 26-36 |
| FT% | 78 | 72 |
| REB | 41 | 46 |
| OR | 9 | 15 |
| DR | 32 | 31 |
| AST | 12 | 12 |
| STL | 8 | 9 |
| BLK | 7 | 6 |
| TO | 15 | 11 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 15 | 11 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 10 | 12 |
| FBPs | 7 | 23 |
| PIP | 32 | 34 |
| PF | 23 | 6 |
| LL | 5 | 14 |
| LC | 12 | 12 |
| LPCT | 21 | 70 |
At lock MILW 69.16–89.37 TCU · TCU by 20.2 pts vs MILW +23.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock
HitC. Jackson · MILW
32 MIN · 7 PTSDJ Thomas · TCU
28 MIN · 15 PTSAmare Hereford · MILW
STAT · 37 MIN · 18 PTS · 8-17 FG · 1-6 3PTXavier Edmonds · TCU
STAT · 28 MIN · 18 PTS · 6-15 FG · 0-1 3PTDanilo Jovanovich · MILW
STAT · 36 MIN · 15 PTS · 7-12 FG · 0-1 3PTBrock Harding · TCU
STAT · 34 MIN · 13 PTS · 4-8 FG · 1-2 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Milwaukee vs TCU pick result · Nov 13, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is MILW +23.5, with a 56% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day