Memphis Tigers at Vanderbilt Commodores
Final · SECN+
81–105
At lock: projected MEM 72.98–88.42 VAN
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 10, 5:30 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1753162012
- Winner: Vanderbilt (91%)
- Spread: MEM +16.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Over 160.5 (56%)
- Score error (both teams)24
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
MEM 72.98–88.42 VAN · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseVAN +12.2 off · MEM +3.5 off, shrunk 20%
- Home field+3.4 pts to VAN
- RecordVAN 3-0 · MEM 2-1
- Market priorBlended 70% toward VAN -13.5 / total 161.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MEM | 42 | 39 | 81 |
| VAN | 47 | 58 | 105 |
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| MEM | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 T. Weeks F · #4 | 24 | 15 | 5-12 | 0-3 | 5-6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 M. Logue F · #77 | 13 | 4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 R. Vavers F · #15 | 22 | 5 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
 L. Almodovar G · #10 | 24 | 21 | 7-14 | 1-4 | 6-7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
 J. Reid G · #0 | 30 | 11 | 4-11 | 1-2 | 2-4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 W. Whorton F · #12 | 6 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 J. Deng F · #7 | 3 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 C. Williams F · #2 | 18 | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
 C. Jackson Jr. G · #11 | 8 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 J. Thedford G · #5 | 11 | 4 | 2-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
 J. Holloway G · #1 | 18 | 7 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
 B. Cummings G · #3 | 23 | 9 | 4-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 N. Popovic F · #17 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 F. Smith Jr. F · #30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 P. Pounds G · #6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 81 | 27-63 | 4-19 | 23-34 | 29 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 17 | 17 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MEM | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 27-63 | 36-63 |
| FG% | 43 | 57 |
| 3PT | 4-19 | 15-32 |
| 3P% | 21 | 47 |
| FT | 23-34 | 18-24 |
| FT% | 68 | 75 |
| REB | 29 | 44 |
| OR | 12 | 12 |
| DR | 17 | 32 |
| AST | 8 | 20 |
| STL | 2 | 4 |
| BLK | 4 | 6 |
| TO | 6 | 9 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 6 | 9 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 1 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 14 | 10 |
| FBPs | 17 | 22 |
| PIP | 40 | 38 |
| PF | 17 | 23 |
| LL | 4 | 27 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 9 | 88 |
At lock MEM 72.98–88.42 VAN · VAN by 15.4 pts vs MEM +16.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
MissT. Weeks · MEM
24 MIN · 15 PTSC. Bing · VAN
28 MIN · 5 PTSAce Glass · VAN
STAT · 23 MIN · 23 PTS · 8-14 FG · 5-10 3PTLuke Almodovar · MEM
STAT · 24 MIN · 21 PTS · 7-14 FG · 1-4 3PTTyler Tanner · VAN
STAT · 33 MIN · 17 PTS · 8-14 FG · 1-6 3PTBerke Buyuktuncel · VAN
STAT · 30 MIN · 16 PTS · 5-7 FG · 2-2 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Memphis vs Vanderbilt pick result · Nov 10, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is MEM +16.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day