UNC Wilmington Seahawks at East Carolina Pirates
Final · ESPN+
78–75Last shot · Trevor Best misses 81-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected UNCW 76.13–73.66 ECU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 4171154551
- Winner: UNC Wilmington (57%)
- Spread: ECU +3.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Over 149.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)3
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
UNCW 76.13–73.66 ECU · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseECU +17.8 off · UNCW +25.0 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to ECU
- RecordECU 1-1 · UNCW 2-0
- Market priorBlended 71% toward UNCW -5.5 / total 152.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNCW | 31 | 47 | 78 |
| ECU | 33 | 42 | 75 |
Scoring plays
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:1565–69
Cian Medley makes driving layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:5267–69
Patrick Wessler makes driving layup (Jahnathan Lamothe assists)
- FT2nd Half 3:3767–70
Cian Medley makes free throw 1 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:1870–70
CJ Luster II makes 25-foot three point jumper (Gavin Walsh assists)
- FT2nd Half 2:0770–71
Cian Medley makes free throw 1 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:2073–71
Tahlan Pettway makes 25-foot three point jumper
- FT2nd Half 1:0973–72
Trevor Best makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:0973–73
Trevor Best makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:4676–73
Tahlan Pettway makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jahnathan Lamothe assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:2376–75
Cian Medley makes 13-foot pullup jump shot
- FT2nd Half 0:2077–75
Gavin Walsh makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2078–75
Gavin Walsh makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| UNCW | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 G. Walsh F · #22 | 33 | 10 | 3-10 | 0-2 | 4-5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
 T. Nelson F · #1 | 21 | 3 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
 P. Wessler C · #2 | 34 | 24 | 8-11 | 0-0 | 8-12 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 1 |
 CJ Luster II G · #3 | 31 | 21 | 6-10 | 5-8 | 4-5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
 X. Brown G · #0 | 20 | 1 | 0-6 | 0-3 | 1-4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
 S. Elliott F · #9 | 9 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
 T. Pettway G · #8 | 27 | 15 | 6-13 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
 M. Smith G · #12 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 T. Maddox G · #6 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 J. Lamothe G · #5 | 23 | 4 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
 W. Seward F · #21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Prodanovic F · #24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 K. Brown G · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 T. Siddle G · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 W. Kermoury G · #7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 78 | 25-58 | 9-24 | 19-35 | 48 | 17 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 35 | 19 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| UNCW | ECU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 25-58 | 23-62 |
| FG% | 43 | 37 |
| 3PT | 9-24 | 9-37 |
| 3P% | 38 | 24 |
| FT | 19-35 | 20-24 |
| FT% | 54 | 83 |
| REB | 48 | 31 |
| OR | 13 | 7 |
| DR | 35 | 24 |
| AST | 17 | 14 |
| STL | 4 | 9 |
| BLK | 1 | 4 |
| TO | 19 | 11 |
| TTO | 1 | 0 |
| ToTO | 19 | 11 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 7 | 17 |
| FBPs | 15 | 14 |
| PIP | 32 | 26 |
| PF | 19 | 26 |
| LL | 11 | 7 |
| LC | 9 | 9 |
| LPCT | 53 | 31 |
At lock UNCW 76.13–73.66 ECU · UNCW by 2.5 pts vs ECU +3.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
HitG. Walsh · UNCW
33 MIN · 10 PTSK. Watson · ECU
39 MIN · 11 PTSPatrick Wessler · UNCW
STAT · 34 MIN · 24 PTS · 8-11 FG · 8-12 FTCian Medley · ECU
STAT · 38 MIN · 23 PTS · 8-17 FG · 1-8 3PTTrevor Best · ECU
STAT · 30 MIN · 22 PTS · 5-11 FG · 4-9 3PTCJ Luster II · UNCW
STAT · 31 MIN · 21 PTS · 6-10 FG · 5-8 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
UNC Wilmington vs East Carolina pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is ECU +3.5, with a 51% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day