South Carolina Upstate Spartans at East Carolina Pirates
Final · ESPN+
70–83Last shot · Cian Medley misses 24-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected UPST 68.78–81.72 ECU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 2:47 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 4154376932
- Winner: East Carolina (87%)
- Spread: UPST +14.5 covers (55%)
- Total: Under 151.5 (56%)
- Score error (both teams)2
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
UPST 68.78–81.72 ECU · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseECU +0.0 off · UPST +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to ECU
- Market priorBlended 86% toward ECU -15.5 / total 152.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UPST | 32 | 38 | 70 |
| ECU | 44 | 39 | 83 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 4:5059–74
Cian Medley makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:5859–75
Cian Medley makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:3859–76
Kaseem Watson makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:3859–77
Kaseem Watson makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:5259–80
Kaseem Watson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cian Medley assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:3462–80
Jalyn Patterson makes 27-foot three point jumper (Amont'e Allen-Johnson assists)
- FT2nd Half 2:2162–81
Brycen Blaine makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:3564–81
Derek Edmond makes 20-foot jumper (Amont'e Allen-Johnson assists)
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 1:2764–83
Kaden Cooper makes 4-foot dunk (Kaseem Watson assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:2266–83
Miles Webb makes driving layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:5568–83
Amont'e Allen-Johnson makes driving layup (Derek Edmond assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:4470–83
Miles Webb makes layup
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| UPST | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 A. Perotti F · #15 | 14 | 5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
 D. Tubek F · #0 | 25 | 8 | 3-9 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
 M. Webb F · #3 | 30 | 12 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
 R. Naugle G · #5 | 26 | 15 | 6-12 | 2-6 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
 A. Allen-Johnson G · #1 | 30 | 6 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
 D. Edmond F · #12 | 29 | 6 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
 Z. Johnson F · #24 | 6 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
 C. Collier C · #7 | 18 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
 J. Patterson G · #2 | 22 | 16 | 6-12 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
 J. Baldwin F · #30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. Radivojevic F · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 K. Payne II F · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 N. Mvula G · #13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 W. Tessema G · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 CJ Rich G · #21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 70 | 29-59 | 7-20 | 5-8 | 31 | 19 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 10 | 21 | 18 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| UPST | ECU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 29-59 | 27-57 |
| FG% | 49 | 47 |
| 3PT | 7-20 | 12-25 |
| 3P% | 35 | 48 |
| FT | 5-8 | 17-25 |
| FT% | 63 | 68 |
| REB | 31 | 31 |
| OR | 10 | 11 |
| DR | 21 | 20 |
| AST | 19 | 15 |
| STL | 6 | 9 |
| BLK | 1 | 2 |
| TO | 20 | 11 |
| TTO | 2 | 1 |
| ToTO | 20 | 11 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 8 | 22 |
| FBPs | 10 | 14 |
| PIP | 40 | 20 |
| PF | 18 | 12 |
| LL | 4 | 21 |
| LC | 7 | 7 |
| LPCT | 6 | 89 |
At lock UPST 68.78–81.72 ECU · ECU by 12.9 pts vs UPST +14.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock
HitA. Perotti · UPST
14 MIN · 5 PTSK. Watson · ECU
33 MIN · 17 PTSJalyn Patterson · UPST
STAT · 22 MIN · 16 PTS · 6-12 FG · 4-8 3PTRies Naugle · UPST
STAT · 26 MIN · 15 PTS · 6-12 FG · 2-6 3PTCian Medley · ECU
STAT · 35 MIN · 14 PTS · 4-13 FG · 1-5 3PTBrycen Blaine · ECU
STAT · 28 MIN · 14 PTS · 5-10 FG · 3-6 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
SC Upstate vs East Carolina pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is UPST +14.5, with a 54% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day