Prairie View A&M Panthers at SMU Mustangs
Final · ACCNX
63–98Last shot · Jacob Patrick misses 22-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected PV 69.50–92.55 SMU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 10, 2:19 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1923203868
- Winner: SMU (98%)
- Spread: PV +26.5 covers (62%)
- Total: Over 160.5 (60%)
- Score error (both teams)12
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
PV 69.50–92.55 SMU · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseSMU +13.6 off · PV +9.3 off, shrunk 20%
- Home field+3.4 pts to SMU
- RecordSMU 3-0 · PV 2-2
- Market priorBlended 84% toward SMU -27.5 / total 160.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PV | 36 | 27 | 63 |
| SMU | 52 | 46 | 98 |
Scoring plays
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 3:3755–91
Michael Eley makes 0-foot tip in dunk
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:2755–93
Cameron Lomax makes 12-foot jumper
- FT2nd Half 3:1156–93
Michael Eley makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:1157–93
Michael Eley makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:5157–94
Rowan Brumbaugh makes free throw 1 of 3
- FT2nd Half 2:5157–95
Rowan Brumbaugh makes free throw 2 of 3
- FT2nd Half 2:5157–96
Rowan Brumbaugh makes free throw 3 of 3
- FT2nd Half 2:3558–96
Bryant Ajiero makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:3560–96
Anthony Gause makes 12-foot turnaround jump shot
- FT2nd Half 1:2360–97
Johan Munch makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:2360–98
Johan Munch makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:3963–98
Anthony Gause makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| PV | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 D. Bynum F · #7 | 14 | 8 | 4-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
 J. Wharton F · #5 | 19 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
 A. Gause G · #0 | 40 | 26 | 9-19 | 5-9 | 3-3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
 M. Bell G · #4 | 27 | 7 | 3-9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
 M. Eley G · #9 | 16 | 8 | 3-8 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
E E. Page F · #21 | 7 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
B B. Aijero F · #8 | 7 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
D D. Ceaser G · #24 | 3 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
E E. Mitchell G · #23 | 35 | 9 | 3-9 | 0-3 | 3-4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
 D. Williams G · #3 | 13 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 S. Tidor G · #2 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 J. Lee G · #10 | 16 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
 J. Fazande F · #25 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
D D. Rivers G · #1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 63 | 23-66 | 6-20 | 11-13 | 32 | 13 | 15 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 21 | 26 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| PV | SMU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 23-66 | 32-63 |
| FG% | 35 | 51 |
| 3PT | 6-20 | 6-22 |
| 3P% | 30 | 27 |
| FT | 11-13 | 28-36 |
| FT% | 85 | 78 |
| REB | 32 | 47 |
| OR | 11 | 14 |
| DR | 21 | 33 |
| AST | 13 | 22 |
| STL | 6 | 12 |
| BLK | 8 | 6 |
| TO | 15 | 11 |
| TTO | 1 | 0 |
| ToTO | 15 | 11 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 9 | 18 |
| FBPs | 11 | 4 |
| PIP | 26 | 46 |
| PF | 26 | 16 |
| LL | 0 | 42 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 97 |
At lock PV 69.50–92.55 SMU · SMU by 23.0 pts vs PV +26.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
MissD. Bynum · PV
14 MIN · 8 PTSJ. O'Neal Jr. · SMU
21 MIN · 14 PTSAnthony Gause · PV
STAT · 40 MIN · 26 PTS · 9-19 FG · 5-9 3PTJaden Toombs · SMU
STAT · 20 MIN · 18 PTS · 8-11 FG · 0-2 3PTRowan Brumbaugh · SMU
STAT · 24 MIN · 11 PTS · 4-8 FG · 0-2 3PTJakub Szumert · SMU
STAT · 19 MIN · 11 PTS · 3-7 FG · 0-2 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Prairie View vs SMU pick result · Nov 10, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is PV +26.5, with a 55% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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