VMI Keydets at SMU Mustangs
Final · ACCNX
70–95Last shot · Niccolo Kalischer-Stork makes free throw 2 of 2
At lock: projected VMI 70.36–91.39 SMU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 6:30 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1939981487
- Winner: SMU (97%)
- Spread: VMI +24.5 covers (62%)
- Total: Over 160.5 (58%)
- Score error (both teams)4
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
VMI 70.36–91.39 SMU · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseSMU +22.9 off · VMI +28.0 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to SMU
- RecordSMU 2-0 · VMI 1-1
- Market priorBlended 85% toward SMU -24.5 / total 160.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VMI | 28 | 42 | 70 |
| SMU | 47 | 48 | 95 |
Scoring plays
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:1560–84
Zion Vaamonde makes driving layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:0660–87
Jacob Patrick makes 23-foot three point jumper (Billy White III assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:4062–87
Zion Vaamonde makes layup (Rokas Zilys assists)
- FT2nd Half 2:3463–87
Zion Vaamonde makes free throw 1 of 1
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:2163–90
Jacob Patrick makes 22-foot three point jumper (Billy White III assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:5765–90
Rokas Zilys makes 8-foot jumper
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:4465–93
Jacob Patrick makes 23-foot three point jumper (Billy White III assists)
- FT2nd Half 1:1666–93
Rokas Zilys makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:1667–93
Rokas Zilys makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:2670–93
Zion Vaamonde makes 26-foot three point jumper (Rodrigas Jucevicius assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:0170–94
Niccolo Kalischer-Stork makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:0170–95
Niccolo Kalischer-Stork makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| VMI | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 P. Narvilas F · #11 | 20 | 2 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
 A. Daushvili F · #9 | 23 | 2 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
 TJ Johnson F · #44 | 26 | 19 | 4-13 | 2-7 | 9-9 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
 AJ Clark G · #5 | 15 | 11 | 4-7 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 R. Bradley Jr. G · #1 | 27 | 13 | 3-12 | 1-4 | 6-8 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 |
 D. Exarchopoulos F · #72 | 4 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
 Z. Vaamonde F · #15 | 12 | 8 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
 J. Panzo F · #12 | 12 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 C. Liston F · #0 | 13 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
 R. Jucevicius G · #25 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 R. Zilys G · #22 | 21 | 8 | 2-7 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
 Tr. Johnson G · #23 | 24 | 7 | 2-10 | 1-6 | 2-3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
 R. Peters F · #32 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Henderson-Bradley G · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Lawson G · #42 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 B. Edmonds III G · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 W. Andrews G · #14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 70 | 18-63 | 5-21 | 29-33 | 36 | 10 | 19 | 13 | 1 | 13 | 23 | 20 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| VMI | SMU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 18-63 | 33-62 |
| FG% | 29 | 53 |
| 3PT | 5-21 | 14-29 |
| 3P% | 24 | 48 |
| FT | 29-33 | 15-21 |
| FT% | 88 | 71 |
| REB | 36 | 38 |
| OR | 13 | 8 |
| DR | 23 | 30 |
| AST | 10 | 26 |
| STL | 13 | 12 |
| BLK | 1 | 7 |
| TO | 19 | 19 |
| TTO | 1 | 0 |
| ToTO | 19 | 19 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 14 | 24 |
| FBPs | 12 | 19 |
| PIP | 24 | 30 |
| PF | 20 | 20 |
| LL | 2 | 28 |
| LC | 2 | 2 |
| LPCT | 1 | 95 |
At lock VMI 70.36–91.39 SMU · SMU by 21.0 pts vs VMI +24.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock
MissP. Narvilas · VMI
20 MIN · 2 PTSJ. O'Neal Jr. · SMU
21 MIN · 14 PTSOziyah Sellers · SMU
STAT · 25 MIN · 21 PTS · 7-11 FG · 5-7 3PTTJ Johnson · VMI
STAT · 26 MIN · 19 PTS · 4-13 FG · 2-7 3PTJacob Patrick · SMU
STAT · 12 MIN · 15 PTS · 5-5 FG · 5-5 3PTRickey Bradley Jr. · VMI
STAT · 27 MIN · 13 PTS · 3-12 FG · 1-4 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
VMI vs SMU pick result · Nov 5, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is VMI +24.5, with a 56% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day