Southern Jaguars at SMU Mustangs
Final · ACCNX
72–85Last shot · Karez Demory makes 16-foot pullup jump shot
At lock: projected SOU 66.63–89.03 SMU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 2:47 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2023869582
- Winner: SMU (97%)
- Spread: SOU +25.5 covers (61%)
- Total: Under 157.5 (60%)
- Score error (both teams)9
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
SOU 66.63–89.03 SMU · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseSMU +0.0 off · SOU +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to SMU
- Market priorBlended 86% toward SMU -25.5 / total 159.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SOU | 38 | 34 | 72 |
| SMU | 40 | 45 | 85 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:1566–77
Julian Greer makes 19-foot jumper
- FT2nd Half 2:5867–77
R'Chaun King makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:5868–77
R'Chaun King makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:5568–78
Rowan Brumbaugh makes free throw 1 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:0468–80
Jakub Szumert makes layup (Jaden Toombs assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:0868–82
Rowan Brumbaugh makes layup (Jaden Toombs assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:4768–83
Jermaine O'Neal Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:4768–84
Jermaine O'Neal Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:3269–84
Justin Page makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:3270–84
Justin Page makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:0570–85
Rowan Brumbaugh makes free throw 1 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:0072–85
Karez Demory makes 16-foot pullup jump shot
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| SOU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 L. Bell C · #10 | 3 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 J. Hunter G · #13 | 17 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
 D. Parish G · #2 | 11 | 3 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 L. Larvadain G · #11 | 4 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 J. Page G · #5 | 28 | 8 | 2-8 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 A. Hall F · #4 | 11 | 4 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 R. King F · #23 | 23 | 12 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
 I. Olajuwon C · #35 | 12 | 4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
 N. Boyde C · #24 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 A. Benjamin G · #9 | 16 | 5 | 1-5 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
 J. Greer G · #8 | 10 | 5 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
 K. Demory G · #6 | 10 | 8 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
 D. Dormu G · #3 | 27 | 10 | 4-11 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
 S. Van Dorn Jr. G · #7 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 M. Ferguson G · #1 | 24 | 9 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 C. Amboree G · #0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 72 | 26-59 | 8-21 | 12-15 | 26 | 15 | 18 | 17 | 2 | 9 | 17 | 27 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| SOU | SMU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 26-59 | 23-45 |
| FG% | 44 | 51 |
| 3PT | 8-21 | 7-17 |
| 3P% | 38 | 41 |
| FT | 12-15 | 32-40 |
| FT% | 80 | 80 |
| REB | 26 | 33 |
| OR | 9 | 9 |
| DR | 17 | 24 |
| AST | 15 | 21 |
| STL | 17 | 11 |
| BLK | 2 | 7 |
| TO | 18 | 21 |
| TTO | 2 | 0 |
| ToTO | 18 | 21 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 25 | 25 |
| FBPs | 11 | 17 |
| PIP | 28 | 26 |
| PF | 27 | 15 |
| LL | 3 | 16 |
| LC | 2 | 2 |
| LPCT | 3 | 94 |
At lock SOU 66.63–89.03 SMU · SMU by 22.4 pts vs SOU +25.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
HitL. Bell · SOU
3 MIN · 2 PTSJ. O'Neal Jr. · SMU
24 MIN · 15 PTSJakub Szumert · SMU
STAT · 31 MIN · 24 PTS · 5-6 FG · 1-1 3PTOziyah Sellers · SMU
STAT · 28 MIN · 13 PTS · 3-8 FG · 1-3 3PTR'Chaun King · SOU
STAT · 23 MIN · 12 PTS · 5-7 FG · 2-3 FTDaniel Dormu · SOU
STAT · 27 MIN · 10 PTS · 4-11 FG · 2-5 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Southern vs SMU pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is SOU +25.5, with a 55% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day