Troy Trojans at NC State Wolfpack
Final · ACC Network
62–81Last shot · Kingston Whitty makes 27-foot three point jumper (Darius Adams assists)
At lock: projected TROY 64.69–84.07 NCSU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 12, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 4053417028
- Winner: NC State (95%)
- Spread: TROY +22.5 covers (61%)
- Total: Over 148.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)6
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
TROY 64.69–84.07 NCSU · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseNCSU +4.8 off · TROY -1.7 off, shrunk 27%
- Home field+3.4 pts to NCSU
- RecordNCSU 4-0 · TROY 1-3
- Market priorBlended 83% toward NCSU -22.5 / total 148.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TROY | 27 | 35 | 62 |
| NCSU | 36 | 45 | 81 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:2053–68
Robert Davis Jr. makes 27-foot three point jumper
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:3353–71
Paul McNeil Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Preston Edmead assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:3755–71
Kerrington Kiel makes driving layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:2155–73
Paul McNeil Jr. makes layup (Darius Adams assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:0155–76
Preston Edmead makes 28-foot three point jumper (Ven-Allen Lubin assists)
- FT2nd Half 1:4056–76
Kerrington Kiel makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:4057–76
Kerrington Kiel makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:1657–78
Eemeli Yalaho makes layup (Ven-Allen Lubin assists)
- FT2nd Half 1:0758–78
Caua Pacheco makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:0759–78
Caua Pacheco makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:4462–78
Tucker Wadsworth makes 26-foot three point jumper (Caua Pacheco assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:2462–81
Kingston Whitty makes 27-foot three point jumper (Darius Adams assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| TROY | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 M. Ikegwuruka F · #7 | 10 | 4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
 C. Diggs F · #11 | 7 | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 R. Davis Jr. G · #4 | 19 | 6 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
 D. Oday G · #3 | 25 | 12 | 5-16 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
 J. Hutchinson G · #1 | 31 | 4 | 0-8 | 0-2 | 4-6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
 E. Griffin F · #25 | 13 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
 K. Kiel F · #0 | 33 | 13 | 5-8 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
 S. Walters F · #24 | 17 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
 T. Wadsworth G · #23 | 2 | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 W. Piggott Jr. G · #5 | 14 | 7 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
 C. Pacheco G · #2 | 28 | 10 | 3-11 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
 J. Kontuniemi G · #8 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 A. Pacheco C · #27 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 R. Valakou G · #6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 H. Awata G · #30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 62 | 20-58 | 8-24 | 14-19 | 31 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 20 | 18 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| TROY | NCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 20-58 | 25-58 |
| FG% | 34 | 43 |
| 3PT | 8-24 | 11-33 |
| 3P% | 33 | 33 |
| FT | 14-19 | 20-24 |
| FT% | 74 | 83 |
| REB | 31 | 44 |
| OR | 11 | 15 |
| DR | 20 | 29 |
| AST | 9 | 19 |
| STL | 4 | 4 |
| BLK | 4 | 7 |
| TO | 7 | 7 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 7 | 7 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 4 | 6 |
| FBPs | 10 | 9 |
| PIP | 24 | 28 |
| PF | 18 | 16 |
| LL | 0 | 22 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 99 |
At lock TROY 64.69–84.07 NCSU · NCSU by 19.4 pts vs TROY +22.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
HitM. Ikegwuruka · TROY
10 MIN · 4 PTSK. Evans · NCSU
15 MIN · 5 PTSPaul McNeil Jr. · NCSU
STAT · 32 MIN · 16 PTS · 5-10 FG · 4-8 3PTVen-Allen Lubin · NCSU
STAT · 27 MIN · 15 PTS · 4-8 FG · 0-1 3PTKerrington Kiel · TROY
STAT · 33 MIN · 13 PTS · 5-8 FG · 1-2 3PTDarius Adams · NCSU
STAT · 27 MIN · 13 PTS · 5-9 FG · 2-5 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Troy vs NC State pick result · Nov 13, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is TROY +22.5, with a 55% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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