Louisville Cardinals at Memphis Tigers
TV · ESPN
@Model projects LOU 87.45 – 80.05 MEM · below the strong-play bar (edge -0.2%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
A. Wooley · LOU
GuardK. Knox · LOU
GuardA. Folgueiras · LOU
ForwardJ. Reid · MEM
GuardC. Williams · MEM
Forward
Projected prop · Jayden Reid (MEM) 22.11 pts · 23.00 pts/game this season, × 0.96 for the projected MEM score
At lock: projected LOU 87.45–80.05 MEM
The model
How this number was built
LOU 87.45–80.05 MEM · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseMEM +3.5 off · LOU +5.7 off, shrunk 27%
- Home field+3.4 pts to MEM
- RecordMEM 2-1 · LOU 2-0
- Market priorBlended 70% toward LOU -8.5 / total 163.5
Season leaders
Adrian WooleyPTS 13.5
Karter KnoxREB 8.5
Alvaro FolgueirasAST 4.5
Jayden ReidPTS 23.0
Corneilous WilliamsREB 6.0- Jayden ReidAST 3.3
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| LOU | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| STRK | W2 | L1 |
| OPP PPG | 63.5 | 89.7 |
| PTS | 95.5 | 83.3 |
| FG% | 49 | 45 |
| 3P% | 30 | 38 |
| REB | 50.5 | 32.3 |
| AST | 19.0 | 10.0 |
| BLK | 3.5 | 3.7 |
| STL | 9.5 | 5.7 |
| TTO | 0.0 | 0.3 |
| ToTO | 8.5 | 9.3 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Louisville vs Memphis prediction · Nov 15, 2026
The model projects Louisville 87.5, Memphis 80.0. Model win probability: Memphis 26%, Louisville 74%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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