Morehead State Eagles at Louisville Cardinals
Final · ACCNX
57–107Last shot · Jace Winkleman makes 24-foot three point jumper (Justin Payne assists)
At lock: projected MORE 59.54–91.96 LOU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 4154229837
- Winner: Louisville (100%)
- Spread: MORE +37.5 covers (66%)
- Total: Under 151.5 (50%)
- Score error (both teams)17
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
MORE 59.54–91.96 LOU · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseLOU +1.9 off · MORE +10.7 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to LOU
- RecordLOU 2-0 · MORE 1-2
- Market priorBlended 85% toward LOU -37.5 / total 151.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MORE | 33 | 24 | 57 |
| LOU | 46 | 61 | 107 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 3:1249–96
LJ Wells makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:3949–97
Karter Knox makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:3949–98
Karter Knox makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:2150–98
Justin Payne makes free throw 1 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:0950–100
Will Hanke makes layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:5052–100
Jace Winkleman makes 14-foot jumper
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:3952–102
Karter Knox makes driving layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:5152–104
Isaac Ellis makes layup
- FT2nd Half 0:4453–104
Justin Payne makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:4454–104
Justin Payne makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:2954–107
Obinna Ekezie Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Isaac Ellis assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:2257–107
Jace Winkleman makes 24-foot three point jumper (Justin Payne assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| MORE | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 D. Alexander F · #25 | 20 | 2 | 1-9 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
 C. Parker F · #33 | 28 | 19 | 6-12 | 4-7 | 3-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
 V. Dawson III G · #5 | 21 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 I. Day G · #23 | 25 | 9 | 4-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
 C. Dawson G · #10 | 30 | 3 | 1-6 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 T. Tangiora F · #42 | 18 | 5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
 J. Priester F · #15 | 12 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
 M. Gillespie G · #4 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 J. Payne G · #1 | 15 | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 J. Wright G · #11 | 10 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 K. Shaw G · #7 | 17 | 7 | 3-10 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
 J. Winkleman G · #12 | 2 | 5 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 L. Bass Jr. F · #0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 K. Carbon G · #2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. Cunningham G · #22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 57 | 21-63 | 6-18 | 9-14 | 23 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 20 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MORE | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 21-63 | 37-69 |
| FG% | 33 | 54 |
| 3PT | 6-18 | 13-38 |
| 3P% | 33 | 34 |
| FT | 9-14 | 20-28 |
| FT% | 64 | 71 |
| REB | 23 | 59 |
| OR | 7 | 20 |
| DR | 16 | 39 |
| AST | 9 | 21 |
| STL | 3 | 7 |
| BLK | 1 | 6 |
| TO | 8 | 7 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 8 | 7 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 1 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 7 | 10 |
| FBPs | 0 | 10 |
| PIP | 24 | 48 |
| PF | 20 | 17 |
| LL | 7 | 53 |
| LC | 3 | 3 |
| LPCT | 17 | 80 |
At lock MORE 59.54–91.96 LOU · LOU by 32.4 pts vs MORE +36.5 · 58% is the confidence saved at lock
MissD. Alexander · MORE
20 MIN · 2 PTSA. Folgueiras · LOU
22 MIN · 10 PTSObinna Ekezie Jr. · LOU
STAT · 25 MIN · 20 PTS · 8-12 FG · 3-6 3PTClayton Parker · MORE
STAT · 28 MIN · 19 PTS · 6-12 FG · 4-7 3PTKarter Knox · LOU
STAT · 21 MIN · 15 PTS · 4-7 FG · 1-3 3PTAdrian Wooley · LOU
STAT · 23 MIN · 12 PTS · 3-5 FG · 1-2 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Morehead St vs Louisville pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is MORE +36.5, with a 58% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day