Chattanooga Mocs at Louisville Cardinals
Final · ACC Network
70–84Last shot · Yssam Moungalla makes 23-foot three point jumper (Houston Holland assists)
At lock: projected UTC 64.91–92.47 LOU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 2:47 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3902565552
- Winner: Louisville (99%)
- Spread: UTC +31.5 covers (64%)
- Total: Under 159.5 (62%)
- Score error (both teams)13
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
UTC 64.91–92.47 LOU · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseLOU +0.0 off · UTC +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to LOU
- Market priorBlended 86% toward LOU -30.5 / total 159.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTC | 35 | 35 | 70 |
| LOU | 56 | 28 | 84 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 5:1858–75
Zach Bleshoy makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:5458–78
Seth Trimble makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jackson Shelstad assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:3860–78
Christian Matos makes layup (Sean Cusano assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:1360–80
Adrian Wooley makes driving layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:0163–80
Yonatan Levy makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kobe McDowell-White assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:4765–80
Christian Matos makes layup (Zach Bleshoy assists)
- FT2nd Half 3:3565–81
Alvaro Folgueiras makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:4765–82
Seth Trimble makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:4765–83
Seth Trimble makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:2367–83
Lenny Anigbata makes layup (Yonatan Levy assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:5767–84
Flory Bidunga makes free throw 1 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:0070–84
Yssam Moungalla makes 23-foot three point jumper (Houston Holland assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| UTC | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Y. Levy F · #18 | 26 | 14 | 5-12 | 3-9 | 1-3 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
 L. Anigbata G · #12 | 30 | 12 | 4-10 | 2-8 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 |
 K. McDowell-White G · #5 | 33 | 6 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 |
 M. Hampton G · #1 | 25 | 2 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
 Z. Bleshoy G · #4 | 25 | 14 | 5-7 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
 C. Hardaway F · #6 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 J. Bowman F · #30 | 11 | 9 | 4-8 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 A. Swift F · #2 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 J. Fleeman C · #34 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Y. Moungalla G · #33 | 0 | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 C. Matos G · #11 | 18 | 10 | 4-5 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 T. Powell G · #3 | 12 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 L. Vitters G · #20 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 H. Holland G · #13 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
 S. Cusano G · #7 | 14 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
 T. Houser F · #44 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 T. Darner G · #0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 70 | 25-57 | 12-33 | 8-14 | 38 | 18 | 18 | 8 | 1 | 11 | 27 | 19 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| UTC | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 25-57 | 30-68 |
| FG% | 44 | 44 |
| 3PT | 12-33 | 9-35 |
| 3P% | 36 | 26 |
| FT | 8-14 | 15-26 |
| FT% | 57 | 58 |
| REB | 38 | 42 |
| OR | 11 | 18 |
| DR | 27 | 24 |
| AST | 18 | 17 |
| STL | 8 | 12 |
| BLK | 1 | 1 |
| TO | 18 | 10 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 18 | 10 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 10 | 20 |
| FBPs | 6 | 13 |
| PIP | 26 | 42 |
| PF | 19 | 16 |
| LL | 0 | 25 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 99 |
At lock UTC 64.91–92.47 LOU · LOU by 27.6 pts vs UTC +31.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock
HitY. Levy · UTC
26 MIN · 14 PTSA. Folgueiras · LOU
34 MIN · 10 PTSFlory Bidunga · LOU
STAT · 27 MIN · 16 PTS · 6-9 FG · 0-1 3PTAdrian Wooley · LOU
STAT · 28 MIN · 15 PTS · 7-14 FG · 1-6 3PTZach Bleshoy · UTC
STAT · 25 MIN · 14 PTS · 5-7 FG · 2-3 3PTJackson Shelstad · LOU
STAT · 32 MIN · 13 PTS · 5-15 FG · 3-12 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Chattanooga vs Louisville pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is UTC +31.5, with a 56% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day