North Dakota Fighting Hawks at Clemson Tigers
Final · ACCNX
77–92Last shot · Ace Buckner makes layup
At lock: projected UND 67.55–87.07 CLEM
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 9, 9:01 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1976912317
- Winner: Clemson (96%)
- Spread: UND +21.5 covers (57%)
- Total: Over 153.5 (57%)
- Score error (both teams)14
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
UND 67.55–87.07 CLEM · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseCLEM +11.1 off · UND +7.0 off, shrunk 20%
- Home field+3.4 pts to CLEM
- RecordCLEM 3-0 · UND 1-2
- Market priorBlended 84% toward CLEM -23.5 / total 154.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UND | 40 | 37 | 77 |
| CLEM | 38 | 54 | 92 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:0771–76
Luke Winkel makes 26-foot three point jumper
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:5171–78
Chase Thompson makes layup (Dylan Faulkner assists)
- FT2nd Half 3:1471–79
Liutauras Lelevicius makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:1471–80
Liutauras Lelevicius makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:4271–83
Cole Certa makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dylan Faulkner assists)
- FT2nd Half 1:5472–83
Samuel Hincapie makes free throw 1 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:3872–85
Ace Buckner makes layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:2574–85
Samuel Hincapie makes layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:0574–88
Chase Thompson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dylan Faulkner assists)
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 0:4874–90
Dylan Faulkner makes 4-foot dunk
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:3377–90
Samuel Hincapie makes 29-foot three point jumper (Carter Evanson assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:0577–92
Ace Buckner makes layup
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| UND | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 J. Jones C · #22 | 15 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
 L. Winkel G · #14 | 26 | 16 | 5-15 | 2-6 | 4-4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 C. Evanson G · #0 | 30 | 9 | 3-7 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
 S. Hincapie G · #12 | 26 | 22 | 8-13 | 4-7 | 2-3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 Z. Kraft G · #1 | 35 | 12 | 4-8 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
 D. Ely F · #52 | 13 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
 A. Radojevic F · #15 | 13 | 6 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 J. Thomas F · #8 | 13 | 5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
 Z. Parks G · #23 | 15 | 5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
 J. Moore G · #2 | 14 | 2 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 K. Ouse F · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 S. Hanson G · #32 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. Dungey G · #3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 T. Wagner G · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 77 | 28-62 | 13-27 | 8-13 | 22 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 12 | 18 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| UND | CLEM | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 28-62 | 31-47 |
| FG% | 45 | 66 |
| 3PT | 13-27 | 9-18 |
| 3P% | 48 | 50 |
| FT | 8-13 | 21-26 |
| FT% | 62 | 81 |
| REB | 22 | 32 |
| OR | 10 | 8 |
| DR | 12 | 24 |
| AST | 11 | 20 |
| STL | 10 | 3 |
| BLK | 1 | 4 |
| TO | 6 | 12 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 6 | 12 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 18 | 11 |
| FBPs | 4 | 2 |
| PIP | 28 | 42 |
| PF | 18 | 9 |
| LL | 6 | 16 |
| LC | 10 | 10 |
| LPCT | 36 | 60 |
At lock UND 67.55–87.07 CLEM · CLEM by 19.5 pts vs UND +21.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
HitJ. Jones · UND
15 MIN · 0-0 FGL. Lelevicius · CLEM
32 MIN · 21 PTSSamuel Hincapie · UND
STAT · 26 MIN · 22 PTS · 8-13 FG · 4-7 3PTChase Thompson · CLEM
STAT · 29 MIN · 21 PTS · 9-10 FG · 3-3 3PTLuke Winkel · UND
STAT · 26 MIN · 16 PTS · 5-15 FG · 2-6 3PTAce Buckner · CLEM
STAT · 36 MIN · 13 PTS · 5-8 FG · 0-2 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
North Dakota vs Clemson pick result · Nov 9, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is UND +21.5, with a 53% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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