Central Arkansas Bears at Ole Miss Rebels
Final · SECN+
60–92Last shot · Stefan Cicic makes 6-foot jumper (Dasear Haskins assists)
At lock: projected CARK 69.70–85.09 MISS
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 6:09 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1523456075
- Winner: Ole Miss (91%)
- Spread: CARK +17.5 covers (58%)
- Total: Over 154.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)17
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
CARK 69.70–85.09 MISS · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseMISS +13.6 off · CARK +23.4 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to MISS
- RecordMISS 2-0 · CARK 1-1
- Market priorBlended 85% toward MISS -16.5 / total 154.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CARK | 24 | 36 | 60 |
| MISS | 47 | 45 | 92 |
Scoring plays
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:3246–83
Yohance Connor makes layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:2049–83
Luke Moore makes 23-foot three point jumper (Andrew Hoerner assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:5752–83
Camarion Bead makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cole McCormick assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:3152–85
Jaron Saulsberry makes 19-foot jumper
- FT2nd Half 2:2153–85
Andrew Hoerner makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:2154–85
Andrew Hoerner makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:0854–86
Dasear Haskins makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:4354–88
Jaron Saulsberry makes layup (Zach Day assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:0557–88
Andrew Hoerner makes 26-foot three point jumper (R.J. Newton assists)
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 0:5657–90
Stefan Cicic makes 2-foot dunk (Daniel Patton assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:3560–90
J.C. Shulman makes 25-foot three point jumper (R.J. Newton assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:1260–92
Stefan Cicic makes 6-foot jumper (Dasear Haskins assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| CARK | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 M. Marable F · #25 | 18 | 3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
 L. Moore G · #32 | 24 | 11 | 3-7 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 H. Beauchamp G · #9 | 21 | 4 | 1-5 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 C. McCormick G · #24 | 26 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
 Ty Robinson G · #12 | 18 | 4 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
 A. Hoerner F · #54 | 9 | 5 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
 S. Saadi F · #35 | 14 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
 T. Anderson F · #23 | 19 | 6 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
 I. Templeton G · #5 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 C. Bead G · #2 | 14 | 9 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 R.J. Young G · #0 | 11 | 4 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
 R.J. Newton G · #7 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 J.C. Shulman G · #4 | 2 | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 O. Dehrmann G · #10 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 R. Marshall G · #3 | 18 | 8 | 3-10 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 |
| Team | 60 | 19-50 | 9-28 | 13-21 | 33 | 12 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 17 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| CARK | MISS | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 19-50 | 36-70 |
| FG% | 38 | 51 |
| 3PT | 9-28 | 10-25 |
| 3P% | 32 | 40 |
| FT | 13-21 | 10-14 |
| FT% | 62 | 71 |
| REB | 33 | 39 |
| OR | 7 | 11 |
| DR | 26 | 28 |
| AST | 12 | 22 |
| STL | 4 | 10 |
| BLK | 1 | 5 |
| TO | 18 | 8 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 18 | 8 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 5 | 20 |
| FBPs | 2 | 20 |
| PIP | 18 | 42 |
| PF | 17 | 18 |
| LL | 0 | 38 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 97 |
At lock CARK 69.70–85.09 MISS · MISS by 15.4 pts vs CARK +17.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
MissM. Marable · CARK
18 MIN · 3 PTSR. Siulepa · MISS
22 MIN · 4 PTSPatton Pinkins · MISS
STAT · 27 MIN · 19 PTS · 7-8 FG · 4-5 3PTAdam Clark · MISS
STAT · 30 MIN · 13 PTS · 6-14 FG · 1-3 3PTBen Henshall · MISS
STAT · 20 MIN · 13 PTS · 4-8 FG · 2-6 3PTLuke Moore · CARK
STAT · 24 MIN · 11 PTS · 3-7 FG · 3-5 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
C Arkansas vs Ole Miss pick result · Nov 6, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is CARK +17.5, with a 55% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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