Pacific Tigers at Bradley Braves
Final · ESPN+
63–52Last shot · Xander Alarie misses 13-foot jumper
At lock: projected PAC 68.97–70.67 BRAD
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 12:42 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 456318995
- Winner: Bradley (56%)
- Spread: BRAD -1.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Over 139.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)25
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
PAC 68.97–70.67 BRAD · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseBRAD +20.1 off · PAC +10.4 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to BRAD
- RecordBRAD 1-1 · PAC 2-0
- Market priorBlended 71% toward BRAD -1.5 / total 139.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PAC | 29 | 34 | 63 |
| BRAD | 19 | 33 | 52 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 4:5354–46
Trevon Payton makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:0055–46
Jaden Winston makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:0056–46
Jaden Winston makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:5256–48
Xander Alarie makes 6-foot hook shot (Trevon Payton assists)
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 1:3558–48
Gavin Ripp makes 4-foot dunk (Jaion Pitt assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:4559–48
Adriel Nyorha makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:4560–48
Adriel Nyorha makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:3460–50
Ben Thornbrue makes layup (Josh Ibukunoluwa assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:3461–50
Adriel Nyorha makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:3462–50
Adriel Nyorha makes free throw 2 of 2
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 0:1962–52
Josh Ibukunoluwa makes 0-foot tip in layup
- FT2nd Half 0:1163–52
Adriel Nyorha makes free throw 1 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| PAC | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 G. Ripp F · #12 | 30 | 6 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
 J. Thompson F · #24 | 15 | 4 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
 J. Pitt F · #15 | 33 | 14 | 6-10 | 1-2 | 1-3 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
 A. Nyorha G · #21 | 39 | 17 | 5-15 | 2-5 | 5-6 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
 J. Winston G · #2 | 38 | 20 | 7-13 | 2-4 | 4-4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
 J. McFarland C · #13 | 15 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
 CJ Jones G · #3 | 22 | 0 | 0-6 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
 D. Harris G · #8 | 8 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 J. Carot F · #22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 V. Osazee F · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 I. Matlekovic C · #40 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. Mitrevski G · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
N N. Sharpe G · #7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. Vann-Kelly G · #0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 N. Budu G · #25 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Amundsen G · #30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 63 | 22-52 | 6-18 | 13-18 | 41 | 9 | 15 | 7 | 1 | 13 | 28 | 17 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| PAC | BRAD | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 22-52 | 17-59 |
| FG% | 42 | 29 |
| 3PT | 6-18 | 7-30 |
| 3P% | 33 | 23 |
| FT | 13-18 | 11-15 |
| FT% | 72 | 73 |
| REB | 41 | 37 |
| OR | 13 | 17 |
| DR | 28 | 20 |
| AST | 9 | 9 |
| STL | 7 | 7 |
| BLK | 1 | 2 |
| TO | 15 | 15 |
| TTO | 2 | 2 |
| ToTO | 15 | 15 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 19 | 4 |
| FBPs | 4 | 6 |
| PIP | 28 | 18 |
| PF | 17 | 19 |
| LL | 17 | 3 |
| LC | 1 | 1 |
| LPCT | 92 | 6 |
At lock PAC 68.97–70.67 BRAD · BRAD by 1.7 pts vs BRAD -1.5 · 49% is the confidence saved at lock
MissG. Ripp · PAC
30 MIN · 6 PTSJ. Ibukunoluwa · BRAD
33 MIN · 9 PTSJaden Winston · PAC
STAT · 38 MIN · 20 PTS · 7-13 FG · 2-4 3PTAdriel Nyorha · PAC
STAT · 39 MIN · 17 PTS · 5-15 FG · 2-5 3PTTrevon Payton · BRAD
STAT · 34 MIN · 16 PTS · 3-14 FG · 3-10 3PTJaion Pitt · PAC
STAT · 33 MIN · 14 PTS · 6-10 FG · 1-2 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Pacific vs Bradley pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is BRAD -1.5, with a 49% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day