North Dakota State Bison at Saint Mary's Gaels
Final · ESPN+
64–105Last shot · Karl Poom makes layup
At lock: projected NDSU 68.73–80.29 SMC
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 4, 5:24 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 624095185
- Winner: Saint Mary's (84%)
- Spread: NDSU +13.5 covers (57%)
- Total: Over 148.5 (54%)
- Score error (both teams)29
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
NDSU 68.73–80.29 SMC · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseSMC +22.4 off · NDSU +28.3 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to SMC
- RecordSMC 2-0 · NDSU 1-1
- Market priorBlended 85% toward SMC -13.5 / total 148.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NDSU | 26 | 38 | 64 |
| SMC | 45 | 60 | 105 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 5:3753–92
Flynn Pavely makes 4-foot hook shot
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 5:3255–92
Carson Smith makes driving layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 5:2055–94
Darius Bivins makes 14-foot step back jumpshot
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:4755–97
Trent MacLean makes 26-foot three point jumper (Darius Bivins assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:3757–97
Jaziah Harper makes layup (Max Iversen assists)
- FT2nd Half 4:3758–97
Jaziah Harper makes free throw 1 of 1
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:0858–99
Luke Fennell makes driving layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:4360–99
Rob Diaz III makes driving layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:2260–102
Jeremy Dent-Smith makes 24-foot three point jumper
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:0662–102
Max Iversen makes driving layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:3562–105
Cooper Lewis makes 24-foot three point jumper (Flynn Pavely assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:1864–105
Karl Poom makes layup
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| NDSU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 K. Tate F · #3 | 10 | 4 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
 A. Nagy F · #44 | 23 | 8 | 2-7 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
 R. Diaz III G · #0 | 18 | 9 | 4-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 A. Stefonowicz G · #5 | 23 | 3 | 1-7 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 M. Bell Jr. G · #1 | 21 | 1 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
 K. Poom F · #23 | 16 | 15 | 6-9 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
 A. Danforth G · #13 | 14 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 M. Iversen G · #4 | 20 | 11 | 4-7 | 1-3 | 2-3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 R. Massey G · #2 | 17 | 6 | 2-7 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
 J. Harper G · #14 | 13 | 3 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
 C. Smith G · #7 | 17 | 4 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
 J. Robison G · #11 | 8 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 C. Stack F · #35 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 O. Junker F · #22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Schoenfeld F · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 S. Paz Vazquez G · #30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 64 | 23-61 | 5-23 | 13-19 | 30 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 0 | 13 | 17 | 15 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| NDSU | SMC | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 23-61 | 39-58 |
| FG% | 38 | 67 |
| 3PT | 5-23 | 20-31 |
| 3P% | 22 | 65 |
| FT | 13-19 | 7-10 |
| FT% | 68 | 70 |
| REB | 30 | 30 |
| OR | 13 | 3 |
| DR | 17 | 27 |
| AST | 12 | 31 |
| STL | 7 | 2 |
| BLK | 0 | 7 |
| TO | 11 | 8 |
| TTO | 2 | 0 |
| ToTO | 11 | 8 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 7 | 17 |
| FBPs | 9 | 13 |
| PIP | 34 | 34 |
| PF | 15 | 19 |
| LL | 2 | 43 |
| LC | 2 | 2 |
| LPCT | 1 | 94 |
At lock NDSU 68.73–80.29 SMC · SMC by 11.6 pts vs NDSU +13.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
MissK. Tate · NDSU
10 MIN · 4 PTSV. Zougris · SMC
21 MIN · 11 PTSJoshua Dent · SMC
STAT · 21 MIN · 17 PTS · 6-7 FG · 5-6 3PTKarl Poom · NDSU
STAT · 16 MIN · 15 PTS · 6-9 FG · 2-2 3PTRory Hawke · SMC
STAT · 18 MIN · 15 PTS · 6-6 FG · 3-3 3PTDarius Bivins · SMC
STAT · 22 MIN · 12 PTS · 5-7 FG · 2-2 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
N Dakota St vs Saint Mary's pick result · Nov 4, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is NDSU +13.5, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day