Mercyhurst Lakers at Penn State Nittany Lions
Final · B1G+
57–72Last shot · Cameron Johnson misses 11-foot jumper
At lock: projected MERC 65.72–83.42 PSU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 11, 10:54 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1708730479
- Winner: Penn State (95%)
- Spread: MERC +20.5 covers (58%)
- Total: Over 147.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)19
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
MERC 65.72–83.42 PSU · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defensePSU +5.3 off · MERC -3.0 off, shrunk 27%
- Home field+3.4 pts to PSU
- RecordPSU 3-1 · MERC 1-3
- Market priorBlended 83% toward PSU -19.5 / total 144.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MERC | 29 | 28 | 57 |
| PSU | 33 | 39 | 72 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 4:4349–61
Ivan Juric makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:4349–62
Ivan Juric makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:1949–63
Brant Byers makes free throw 1 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:0451–63
Deraje Agbaosi makes layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:3054–63
Cameron Johnson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Marcus Jackson assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:4957–63
Jake Lemelman makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cameron Johnson assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:3257–65
Ivan Juric makes layup (Thomas Allard assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:0757–67
Brant Byers makes layup (Thomas Allard assists)
- FT2nd Half 1:4257–68
Ivan Juric makes free throw 1 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:5757–70
Ivan Juric makes layup (Dasonte Bowen assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:4357–71
Dasonte Bowen makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:4357–72
Dasonte Bowen makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| MERC | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 C. Johnson F · #3 | 30 | 12 | 3-7 | 2-3 | 4-4 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 3 |
 D. Agbaosi F · #23 | 22 | 4 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
 J. Lemelman G · #11 | 38 | 20 | 7-22 | 3-10 | 3-4 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 M. Jackson G · #44 | 24 | 4 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
 G. Sprouse G · #12 | 30 | 5 | 1-10 | 1-10 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 S. Kirker F · #0 | 21 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
 C. Leman F · #13 | 8 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
H H. Te Ratana G · #5 | 27 | 10 | 5-9 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
 T. Rainwater F · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
S S. Sakihama G · #17 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Maxwell-Grimes G · #1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 Or Faran G · #32 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 B. Conner G · #2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. Kelly G · #7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Pierce NA · #8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 57 | 20-60 | 6-29 | 11-13 | 33 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 24 | 21 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MERC | PSU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 20-60 | 25-49 |
| FG% | 33 | 51 |
| 3PT | 6-29 | 6-11 |
| 3P% | 21 | 55 |
| FT | 11-13 | 16-27 |
| FT% | 85 | 59 |
| REB | 33 | 39 |
| OR | 9 | 8 |
| DR | 24 | 31 |
| AST | 13 | 17 |
| STL | 5 | 6 |
| BLK | 3 | 1 |
| TO | 9 | 9 |
| TTO | 1 | 1 |
| ToTO | 9 | 9 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 11 | 7 |
| FBPs | 6 | 15 |
| PIP | 20 | 36 |
| PF | 21 | 16 |
| LL | 2 | 15 |
| LC | 5 | 5 |
| LPCT | 7 | 84 |
At lock MERC 65.72–83.42 PSU · PSU by 17.7 pts vs MERC +20.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock
HitC. Johnson · MERC
30 MIN · 12 PTSR. Prkacin · PSU
24 MIN · 14 PTSJake Lemelman · MERC
STAT · 38 MIN · 20 PTS · 7-22 FG · 3-10 3PTIvan Juric · PSU
STAT · 31 MIN · 20 PTS · 7-8 FG · 6-11 FTBrant Byers · PSU
STAT · 29 MIN · 14 PTS · 4-7 FG · 3-5 3PTHunter Te Ratana · MERC
STAT · 27 MIN · 10 PTS · 5-9 FG · 0-4 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Mercyhurst vs Penn State pick result · Nov 12, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is MERC +20.5, with a 54% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day