Canisius Golden Griffins at Penn State Nittany Lions
Final · B1G+
57–97Last shot · Aleksandar Zecevic misses free throw 2 of 2
At lock: projected CAN 65.77–85.59 PSU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 2:47 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1624842384
- Winner: Penn State (96%)
- Spread: CAN +22.5 covers (59%)
- Total: Under 152.5 (57%)
- Score error (both teams)20
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
CAN 65.77–85.59 PSU · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defensePSU +0.0 off · CAN +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to PSU
- Market priorBlended 86% toward PSU -24.5 / total 154.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAN | 26 | 31 | 57 |
| PSU | 47 | 50 | 97 |
Scoring plays
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:2749–89
Josh Reed makes layup (Roberts Blums assists)
- FT2nd Half 3:0650–89
Preist Ryan makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:5150–90
Tim Oboh makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:3050–91
Tim Oboh makes free throw 1 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:2152–91
Jerry Guerrero makes 17-foot step back jumpshot
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 2:0554–91
Preist Ryan makes 2-foot alley oop dunk (Jerry Guerrero assists)
- FT2nd Half 1:4654–92
Reggie Grodin makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:4654–93
Reggie Grodin makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:2154–95
Andy Gemao makes 6-foot jumper (Reggie Grodin assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:4954–96
Tim Oboh makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:2857–96
Will Fowler makes 25-foot three point jumper (Preist Ryan assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:0057–97
Aleksandar Zecevic makes free throw 1 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| CAN | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 C. Efinda F · #5 | 32 | 13 | 5-10 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
 N. Fouts F · #15 | 25 | 7 | 3-8 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
 P. Ryan F · #4 | 30 | 12 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
 M. Wilson Jr. G · #33 | 33 | 6 | 3-14 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
 V. Sigona G · #1 | 23 | 7 | 3-9 | 0-5 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 W. Taylor F · #13 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 D. Mulcahy G · #95 | 4 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 J. Guerrero G · #14 | 15 | 6 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
 A. Mack G · #3 | 20 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
 W. Fowler G · #10 | 17 | 4 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 T. Augustine G · #12 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 A. Riak F · #22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 N. Deer F · #7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
W W. Taylor G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Francis G · #32 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. Winters G · #2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 57 | 24-61 | 4-22 | 5-9 | 28 | 12 | 17 | 6 | 1 | 10 | 18 | 23 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| CAN | PSU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 24-61 | 36-65 |
| FG% | 39 | 55 |
| 3PT | 4-22 | 4-19 |
| 3P% | 18 | 21 |
| FT | 5-9 | 21-29 |
| FT% | 56 | 72 |
| REB | 28 | 45 |
| OR | 10 | 14 |
| DR | 18 | 31 |
| AST | 12 | 20 |
| STL | 6 | 10 |
| BLK | 1 | 4 |
| TO | 17 | 10 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 17 | 10 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 8 | 21 |
| FBPs | 6 | 16 |
| PIP | 32 | 60 |
| PF | 23 | 18 |
| LL | 0 | 42 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 94 |
At lock CAN 65.77–85.59 PSU · PSU by 19.8 pts vs CAN +22.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock
MissC. Efinda · CAN
32 MIN · 13 PTSI. Jurić · PSU
20 MIN · 14 PTSRoko Prkacin · PSU
STAT · 20 MIN · 28 PTS · 12-14 FG · 4-5 FTPreist Ryan · CAN
STAT · 30 MIN · 12 PTS · 5-9 FG · 2-4 FTJosh Reed · PSU
STAT · 21 MIN · 12 PTS · 4-7 FG · 0-1 3PTFrancois Wibaut · PSU
STAT · 20 MIN · 10 PTS · 4-6 FG · 1-2 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Canisius vs Penn State pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is CAN +22.5, with a 54% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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