Southern Jaguars at Minnesota Golden Gophers
Final · B1G+
61–91Last shot · Nolen Anderson makes free throw 1 of 1
At lock: projected SOU 59.17–81.10 MINN
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 11, 10:54 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2351583639
- Winner: Minnesota (98%)
- Spread: SOU +24.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Under 140.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)12
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
SOU 59.17–81.10 MINN · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseMINN +2.0 off · SOU -5.5 off, shrunk 27%
- Home field+3.4 pts to MINN
- RecordMINN 4-0 · SOU 0-5
- Market priorBlended 83% toward MINN -26.5 / total 142.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SOU | 26 | 35 | 61 |
| MINN | 46 | 45 | 91 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:5251–78
Bobby Durkin makes 27-foot three point jumper (Nolan Groves assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:3853–78
Ibrahim Olajuwon makes driving layup
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 3:1453–80
Grayson Grove makes 4-foot dunk (Isaac Asuma assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:3853–83
Isaac Asuma makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nolan Groves assists)
- FT2nd Half 2:0754–83
Daniel Dormu makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:0755–83
Daniel Dormu makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:4555–85
Malachi Palmer makes 16-foot jumper (Nolen Anderson assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:1458–85
Justin Page makes 24-foot three point jumper (Joseph Hunter assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:0961–85
Justin Page makes 22-foot three point jumper (Daniel Dormu assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:5261–88
Winters Grady makes 25-foot three point jumper (Grayson Grove assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:3061–90
Nolen Anderson makes layup (Winters Grady assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:3061–91
Nolen Anderson makes free throw 1 of 1
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| SOU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 R. King F · #23 | 20 | 5 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
 J. Hunter G · #13 | 19 | 4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 D. Dormu G · #3 | 28 | 12 | 4-8 | 0-1 | 4-5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
 L. Larvadain G · #11 | 22 | 10 | 4-7 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 M. Ferguson G · #1 | 20 | 7 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 A. Hall F · #4 | 6 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 L. Bell C · #10 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 I. Olajuwon C · #35 | 14 | 4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
 N. Boyde C · #24 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 A. Benjamin G · #9 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 J. Greer G · #8 | 9 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
 K. Demory G · #6 | 4 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 D. Parish G · #2 | 11 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 S. Van Dorn Jr. G · #7 | 4 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 J. Page G · #5 | 19 | 12 | 5-9 | 2-3 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 C. Amboree G · #0 | 15 | 6 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | 61 | 24-52 | 5-13 | 8-18 | 21 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 18 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| SOU | MINN | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 24-52 | 33-55 |
| FG% | 46 | 60 |
| 3PT | 5-13 | 13-27 |
| 3P% | 38 | 48 |
| FT | 8-18 | 12-18 |
| FT% | 44 | 67 |
| REB | 21 | 40 |
| OR | 4 | 11 |
| DR | 17 | 29 |
| AST | 11 | 28 |
| STL | 9 | 5 |
| BLK | 3 | 2 |
| TO | 12 | 17 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 12 | 17 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 23 | 15 |
| FBPs | 12 | 6 |
| PIP | 24 | 36 |
| PF | 18 | 18 |
| LL | 2 | 31 |
| LC | 3 | 3 |
| LPCT | 5 | 92 |
At lock SOU 59.17–81.10 MINN · MINN by 21.9 pts vs SOU +25.5 · 57% is the confidence saved at lock
MissR. King · SOU
20 MIN · 5 PTSG. Grove · MINN
20 MIN · 7 PTSIsaac Asuma · MINN
STAT · 35 MIN · 23 PTS · 9-14 FG · 4-8 3PTBobby Durkin · MINN
STAT · 28 MIN · 15 PTS · 5-9 FG · 3-7 3PTDaniel Dormu · SOU
STAT · 28 MIN · 12 PTS · 4-8 FG · 0-1 3PTJustin Page · SOU
STAT · 19 MIN · 12 PTS · 5-9 FG · 2-3 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Southern vs Minnesota pick result · Nov 12, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is SOU +25.5, with a 57% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day