St. Thomas Tommies at Minnesota Golden Gophers
Final · Peacock
62–76Last shot · Caden Wilkins misses 13-foot pullup jump shot
At lock: projected STMN 68.29–81.13 MINN
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 6:09 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2385138877
- Winner: Minnesota (87%)
- Spread: STMN +14.5 covers (57%)
- Total: Over 149.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)12
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
STMN 68.29–81.13 MINN · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseMINN +19.1 off · STMN +31.4 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to MINN
- RecordMINN 2-0 · STMN 1-1
- Market priorBlended 85% toward MINN -15.5 / total 148.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| STMN | 22 | 40 | 62 |
| MINN | 40 | 36 | 76 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 5:0557–66
Jaylen Crocker-Johnson makes 3-foot turnaround jump shot (Kyan Evans assists)
- FT2nd Half 4:3157–67
Nolan Groves makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:5457–68
Jaylen Crocker-Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:5457–69
Jaylen Crocker-Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:3659–69
Jeremy Lorenz makes layup (Austin Herro assists)
- FT2nd Half 3:3660–69
Jeremy Lorenz makes free throw 1 of 1
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:1960–72
Kyan Evans makes 26-foot three pointer (Jaylen Crocker-Johnson assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:2862–72
Jeremy Lorenz makes layup (Austin Herro assists)
- FT2nd Half 2:0062–73
Nolan Groves makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:0062–74
Nolan Groves makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:0262–75
Jaylen Crocker-Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:0262–76
Jaylen Crocker-Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| STMN | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 J. Lorenz F · #33 | 29 | 13 | 5-12 | 1-5 | 2-3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
 C. Bjerke F · #32 | 23 | 9 | 3-6 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
 T. Franks G · #5 | 29 | 4 | 1-6 | 0-5 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
 H. Tibbits G · #1 | 26 | 12 | 3-9 | 3-8 | 3-4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 A. Herro G · #2 | 26 | 3 | 1-7 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 C. Wilkins F · #21 | 17 | 6 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 |
 K. Counts F · #24 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
J J. Wilkinson G · #22 | 21 | 6 | 2-6 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
J J. Wade G · #11 | 10 | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 K. Blue G · #4 | 16 | 6 | 2-8 | 0-5 | 2-4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
 L. Momcilovic F · #13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
J J. Mitchell III G · #3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
B B. Madson G · #0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. Tauer G · #15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 T. Humphries Jr. G · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 62 | 20-59 | 9-36 | 13-18 | 31 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 22 | 20 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| STMN | MINN | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 20-59 | 23-60 |
| FG% | 34 | 38 |
| 3PT | 9-36 | 11-35 |
| 3P% | 25 | 31 |
| FT | 13-18 | 19-22 |
| FT% | 72 | 86 |
| REB | 31 | 50 |
| OR | 9 | 17 |
| DR | 22 | 33 |
| AST | 14 | 18 |
| STL | 6 | 5 |
| BLK | 4 | 1 |
| TO | 6 | 11 |
| TTO | 0 | 1 |
| ToTO | 6 | 11 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 6 | 7 |
| FBPs | 2 | 12 |
| PIP | 22 | 24 |
| PF | 20 | 16 |
| LL | 4 | 21 |
| LC | 6 | 6 |
| LPCT | 9 | 89 |
At lock STMN 68.29–81.13 MINN · MINN by 12.8 pts vs STMN +14.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
HitJ. Lorenz · STMN
29 MIN · 13 PTSG. Grove · MINN
27 MIN · 10 PTSIsaac Asuma · MINN
STAT · 37 MIN · 20 PTS · 6-10 FG · 4-7 3PTJaylen Crocker-Johnson · MINN
STAT · 23 MIN · 16 PTS · 5-12 FG · 2-6 3PTNolan Groves · MINN
STAT · 29 MIN · 15 PTS · 4-10 FG · 3-8 3PTHayden Tibbits · STMN
STAT · 26 MIN · 12 PTS · 3-9 FG · 3-8 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
St Thomas vs Minnesota pick result · Nov 6, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is STMN +14.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day