North Dakota Fighting Hawks at Minnesota Golden Gophers
Final · B1G+
50–85Last shot · Sage Hanson misses free throw 2 of 2
At lock: projected UND 61.90–85.16 MINN
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 2:47 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2267695544
- Winner: Minnesota (98%)
- Spread: UND +26.5 covers (61%)
- Total: Under 147.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)12
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
UND 61.90–85.16 MINN · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseMINN +0.0 off · UND +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to MINN
- Market priorBlended 86% toward MINN -26.5 / total 149.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UND | 25 | 25 | 50 |
| MINN | 41 | 44 | 85 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 7:3941–72
Bobby Durkin makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 7:0341–74
Grayson Grove makes layup (Bobby Durkin assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 6:4643–74
Andrija Radojevic makes 9-foot floating jump shot (Luke Winkel assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 5:5443–76
Isaac Asuma makes driving layup (Grayson Grove assists)
- FT2nd Half 5:5443–77
Isaac Asuma makes free throw 1 of 1
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 5:4345–77
Jayden Moore makes 11-foot pullup jump shot
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 5:1745–79
Jaylen Crocker-Johnson makes layup (Malick Kordel assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:0945–81
Isaac Asuma makes layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:2345–83
Malick Kordel makes layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:5447–83
Carter Evanson makes layup (Jayden Moore assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:2447–85
Nolan Groves makes 16-foot pullup jump shot (Nolen Anderson assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:5650–85
Sage Hanson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Carter Evanson assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| UND | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 J. Jones C · #22 | 17 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
 L. Winkel G · #14 | 18 | 4 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 S. Hincapie G · #12 | 22 | 5 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 3-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
 T. Wagner G · #5 | 12 | 3 | 0-6 | 0-4 | 3-3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
 Z. Kraft G · #1 | 25 | 3 | 1-8 | 1-8 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
 D. Ely F · #52 | 6 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 A. Radojevic F · #15 | 11 | 10 | 3-7 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 J. Thomas F · #8 | 12 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 S. Hanson G · #32 | 6 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 Z. Parks G · #23 | 21 | 4 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
 D. Dungey G · #3 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 C. Evanson G · #0 | 25 | 5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
 J. Moore G · #2 | 22 | 13 | 6-14 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
 K. Ouse F · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 50 | 17-59 | 3-28 | 13-19 | 36 | 8 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 24 | 18 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| UND | MINN | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 17-59 | 34-62 |
| FG% | 29 | 55 |
| 3PT | 3-28 | 10-25 |
| 3P% | 11 | 40 |
| FT | 13-19 | 7-13 |
| FT% | 68 | 54 |
| REB | 36 | 43 |
| OR | 12 | 9 |
| DR | 24 | 34 |
| AST | 8 | 29 |
| STL | 5 | 5 |
| BLK | 2 | 7 |
| TO | 13 | 9 |
| TTO | 1 | 1 |
| ToTO | 13 | 9 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 14 | 12 |
| FBPs | 7 | 11 |
| PIP | 22 | 46 |
| PF | 18 | 20 |
| LL | 2 | 38 |
| LC | 2 | 2 |
| LPCT | 2 | 93 |
At lock UND 61.90–85.16 MINN · MINN by 23.3 pts vs UND +26.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock
MissJ. Jones · UND
17 MIN · 0-2 FGG. Grove · MINN
19 MIN · 11 PTSBobby Durkin · MINN
STAT · 26 MIN · 16 PTS · 5-6 FG · 4-5 3PTJaylen Crocker-Johnson · MINN
STAT · 25 MIN · 15 PTS · 5-11 FG · 3-7 3PTJayden Moore · UND
STAT · 22 MIN · 13 PTS · 6-14 FG · 0-3 3PTIsaac Asuma · MINN
STAT · 30 MIN · 13 PTS · 6-9 FG · 0-2 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
North Dakota vs Minnesota pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is UND +26.5, with a 56% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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