Sam Houston Bearkats at Illinois Fighting Illini
Final · B1G+
86–108Last shot · Alec Loustau makes free throw 2 of 2
At lock: projected SHSU 70.69–101.71 ILL
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 12, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 581377620
- Winner: Illinois (100%)
- Spread: SHSU +36.5 covers (68%)
- Total: Under 172.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)21
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
SHSU 70.69–101.71 ILL · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseILL +9.0 off · SHSU +4.5 off, shrunk 27%
- Home field+3.4 pts to ILL
- RecordILL 3-1 · SHSU 2-2
- Market priorBlended 83% toward ILL -35.5 / total 170.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SHSU | 40 | 46 | 86 |
| ILL | 45 | 63 | 108 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 4:4079–95
Andrej Stojakovic makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:1780–95
Riccardo Greppi makes free throw 1 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:0080–98
Quentin Coleman makes 25-foot three point jumper
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:3382–98
Aidan McDowell makes layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:2282–100
Andrej Stojakovic makes layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:5482–102
Tomislav Ivisic makes layup
- FT2nd Half 2:0083–102
Yoda Oke makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:4983–103
Quentin Coleman makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:1885–103
Rylan Kelly makes layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:0785–106
Zavier Zens makes 23-foot three point jumper (Stefan Vaaks assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:2785–108
Lucas Morillo makes layup
- FT2nd Half 0:1086–108
Alec Loustau makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| SHSU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 E. St. Bernard F · #10 | 26 | 6 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
 R. Greppi F · #18 | 15 | 3 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
 A. McDowell G · #11 | 33 | 19 | 7-13 | 4-10 | 1-3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
 J. Coleman G · #2 | 26 | 11 | 4-10 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
 J. Begg G · #5 | 29 | 19 | 6-18 | 2-6 | 5-5 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
A A. Loustau F · #25 | 2 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 M. Dann F · #12 | 14 | 8 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
 Y. Oke F · #1 | 22 | 14 | 4-8 | 4-5 | 2-3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
 C. Sadibou Ndiaye F · #32 | 7 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
 M. Guiseppi-Kitson G · #22 | 4 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 X. Roberson G · #6 | 4 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 R. Kelly G · #8 | 2 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Z. Pipkin G · #7 | 16 | 3 | 1-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
 K. Partain G · #3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 N. Nguyen G · #13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 86 | 31-73 | 14-33 | 10-15 | 35 | 19 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 23 | 19 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| SHSU | ILL | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 31-73 | 40-75 |
| FG% | 42 | 53 |
| 3PT | 14-33 | 15-39 |
| 3P% | 42 | 38 |
| FT | 10-15 | 13-19 |
| FT% | 67 | 68 |
| REB | 35 | 45 |
| OR | 12 | 15 |
| DR | 23 | 30 |
| AST | 19 | 23 |
| STL | 2 | 9 |
| BLK | 2 | 6 |
| TO | 14 | 6 |
| TTO | 0 | 1 |
| ToTO | 14 | 6 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 2 | 19 |
| FBPs | 6 | 23 |
| PIP | 34 | 50 |
| PF | 19 | 19 |
| LL | 2 | 23 |
| LC | 11 | 11 |
| LPCT | 10 | 86 |
At lock SHSU 70.69–101.71 ILL · ILL by 31.0 pts vs SHSU +36.5 · 59% is the confidence saved at lock
HitE. St. Bernard · SHSU
26 MIN · 6 PTST. Ivisic · ILL
22 MIN · 28 PTSAndrej Stojakovic · ILL
STAT · 33 MIN · 26 PTS · 10-16 FG · 0-3 3PTAidan McDowell · SHSU
STAT · 33 MIN · 19 PTS · 7-13 FG · 4-10 3PTJustin Begg · SHSU
STAT · 29 MIN · 19 PTS · 6-18 FG · 2-6 3PTYoda Oke · SHSU
STAT · 22 MIN · 14 PTS · 4-8 FG · 4-5 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Sam Houston vs Illinois pick result · Nov 13, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is SHSU +36.5, with a 59% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day