Illinois Fighting Illini at Texas Tech Red Raiders
Final · Peacock
78–84Last shot · Quentin Coleman makes 1-foot dunk
At lock: projected ILL 85.05–82.75 TTU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 10, 5:30 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 430379049
- Winner: Illinois (58%)
- Spread: ILL -2.5 covers (51%)
- Total: Over 167.5 (54%)
- Score error (both teams)8
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
ILL 85.05–82.75 TTU · Medium confidence
Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexTTU +17.5 vs ILL +21.1 · pred margin -1.8
- Attack / defenseTTU +10.6 off · ILL +20.6 off, shrunk 20%
- Home field+3.4 pts to TTU
- RecordTTU 3-0 · ILL 2-1
- Market priorBlended 70% toward ILL -2.5 / total 166.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ILL | 29 | 49 | 78 |
| TTU | 49 | 35 | 84 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:5870–75
Quentin Coleman makes 28-foot three point jumper
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:2970–77
Cruz Davis makes 8-foot pullup jump shot
- FT2nd Half 0:5670–78
Cruz Davis makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:4473–78
Stefan Vaaks makes 24-foot three point jumper (Quentin Coleman assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:4273–79
Jamichael Stillwell makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:4273–80
Jamichael Stillwell makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:3476–80
Quentin Coleman makes 25-foot three point jumper
- FT2nd Half 0:2976–81
Donovan Atwell makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2976–82
Donovan Atwell makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:1476–83
Darrion Williams makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:1476–84
Darrion Williams makes free throw 2 of 2
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 0:0678–84
Quentin Coleman makes 1-foot dunk
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| ILL | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 T. Ivisic C · #13 | 30 | 14 | 6-12 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
 E. Brown G · #34 | 25 | 5 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
 L. Williams G · #1 | 24 | 8 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
 Q. Coleman G · #11 | 28 | 19 | 7-9 | 5-6 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
 A. Stojakovic G · #2 | 33 | 18 | 6-11 | 1-4 | 5-6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
 Z. Zens F · #22 | 20 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
 Z. Ivisic F · #44 | 11 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 J. Jakstys C · #31 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 S. Vaaks G · #7 | 22 | 10 | 3-12 | 2-10 | 2-6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
 L. Morillo NA · #23 | 5 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 D. Mirkovic F · #0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 L. Davis F · #27 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Davis F · #15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 B. Fagbemi G · #8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 Q. McCoy G · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 78 | 30-60 | 10-34 | 8-19 | 32 | 15 | 16 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 22 | 20 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| ILL | TTU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 30-60 | 26-65 |
| FG% | 50 | 40 |
| 3PT | 10-34 | 9-27 |
| 3P% | 29 | 33 |
| FT | 8-19 | 23-26 |
| FT% | 42 | 88 |
| REB | 32 | 43 |
| OR | 10 | 18 |
| DR | 22 | 25 |
| AST | 15 | 12 |
| STL | 8 | 13 |
| BLK | 4 | 0 |
| TO | 16 | 14 |
| TTO | 0 | 1 |
| ToTO | 16 | 14 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 11 | 19 |
| FBPs | 10 | 8 |
| PIP | 36 | 30 |
| PF | 20 | 17 |
| LL | 0 | 22 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 99 |
At lock ILL 85.05–82.75 TTU · 0.3 pts over 167.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock
MissT. Ivisic · ILL
30 MIN · 14 PTSB. Bagayoko · TTU
13 MIN · 4 PTSCruz Davis · TTU
STAT · 38 MIN · 20 PTS · 7-16 FG · 3-6 3PTQuentin Coleman · ILL
STAT · 28 MIN · 19 PTS · 7-9 FG · 5-6 3PTAndrej Stojakovic · ILL
STAT · 33 MIN · 18 PTS · 6-11 FG · 1-4 3PTDra Gibbs-Lawhorn · TTU
STAT · 21 MIN · 15 PTS · 7-12 FG · 1-4 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Illinois vs Texas Tech pick result · Nov 10, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 167.5, with a 50% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day