American University Eagles at Clemson Tigers
Final · ACCNX
73–82Last shot · Madden Collins makes free throw 1 of 1
At lock: projected AMER 62.30–79.22 CLEM
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 4:55 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2208618738
- Winner: Clemson (93%)
- Spread: AMER +18.5 covers (56%)
- Total: Over 141.5 (50%)
- Score error (both teams)14
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
AMER 62.30–79.22 CLEM · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseCLEM +20.9 off · AMER +4.7 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to CLEM
- RecordCLEM 2-0 · AMER 0-2
- Market priorBlended 85% toward CLEM -15.5 / total 141.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMER | 35 | 38 | 73 |
| CLEM | 39 | 43 | 82 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:2364–76
Ace Buckner makes 25-foot three point jumper
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:0366–76
Greg Jones makes layup
- FT2nd Half 3:4466–77
Dylan Faulkner makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:4466–78
Dylan Faulkner makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:1966–80
Chase Thompson makes layup
- FT2nd Half 1:2867–80
Julen Iturbe makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:2868–80
Julen Iturbe makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:0470–80
Madden Collins makes layup
- FT2nd Half 0:4370–81
Liutauras Lelevicius makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:4370–82
Liutauras Lelevicius makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:3372–82
Madden Collins makes layup
- FT2nd Half 0:3373–82
Madden Collins makes free throw 1 of 1
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| AMER | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 J. Iturbe F · #32 | 27 | 10 | 3-8 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 |
 E. Michaels F · #25 | 18 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
 M. Mayock F · #33 | 25 | 9 | 3-4 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 G. Jones F · #23 | 28 | 10 | 3-7 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 M. Collins G · #2 | 32 | 23 | 10-20 | 1-4 | 2-3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
 M. Smith F · #15 | 13 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
 C. Eagan F · #35 | 4 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 DJ Sandi G · #0 | 6 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 K. Sebastian G · #4 | 12 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
 D. Hogans G · #3 | 12 | 6 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 W. Nausadis G · #7 | 23 | 11 | 3-8 | 3-8 | 2-3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 A. Bryant F · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. McDonald F · #13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 N. Jones F · #21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Casey G · #9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Anderson G · #8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 K. Prince G · #1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 73 | 26-56 | 13-28 | 8-12 | 29 | 9 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 20 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| AMER | CLEM | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 26-56 | 26-61 |
| FG% | 46 | 43 |
| 3PT | 13-28 | 12-27 |
| 3P% | 46 | 44 |
| FT | 8-12 | 18-24 |
| FT% | 67 | 75 |
| REB | 29 | 40 |
| OR | 4 | 12 |
| DR | 25 | 28 |
| AST | 9 | 15 |
| STL | 8 | 8 |
| BLK | 4 | 3 |
| TO | 12 | 11 |
| TTO | 0 | 1 |
| ToTO | 12 | 11 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 7 | 12 |
| FBPs | 0 | 7 |
| PIP | 22 | 28 |
| PF | 20 | 12 |
| LL | 7 | 14 |
| LC | 7 | 7 |
| LPCT | 25 | 73 |
At lock AMER 62.30–79.22 CLEM · CLEM by 16.9 pts vs AMER +18.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
HitJ. Iturbe · AMER
27 MIN · 10 PTSL. Lelevicius · CLEM
29 MIN · 17 PTSAce Buckner · CLEM
STAT · 36 MIN · 26 PTS · 9-14 FG · 5-8 3PTMadden Collins · AMER
STAT · 32 MIN · 23 PTS · 10-20 FG · 1-4 3PTDylan Faulkner · CLEM
STAT · 33 MIN · 12 PTS · 3-7 FG · 6-8 FTWyatt Nausadis · AMER
STAT · 23 MIN · 11 PTS · 3-8 FG · 3-8 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
American vs Clemson pick result · Nov 6, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is AMER +18.5, with a 53% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day