American University Eagles at Cincinnati Bearcats
Final · ESPN+
53–79Last shot · Dean Hogans misses 31-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected AMER 64.48–86.02 CIN
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 2:47 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2258951595
- Winner: Cincinnati (97%)
- Spread: AMER +24.5 covers (60%)
- Total: Under 151.5 (56%)
- Score error (both teams)18
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
AMER 64.48–86.02 CIN · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseCIN +0.0 off · AMER +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to CIN
- Market priorBlended 86% toward CIN -25.5 / total 153.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMER | 33 | 20 | 53 |
| CIN | 35 | 44 | 79 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 5:2446–69
Greg Jones makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 5:2447–69
Greg Jones makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:4848–69
Madden Collins makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:4849–69
Madden Collins makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:4751–69
Julen Iturbe makes layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:3451–72
Tyler Tejada makes 24-foot three point jumper (Elijah Perryman assists)
- FT2nd Half 3:0151–73
David Iweze makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:2552–73
Merrick Smith makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:1452–75
Akai Fleming makes layup (Myles Colvin assists)
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 1:4552–77
Akai Fleming makes 4-foot dunk (Elijah Perryman assists)
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 1:1552–79
Eric Mahaffey makes 1-foot dunk (Elijah Perryman assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:5253–79
Noah Jones makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| AMER | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 J. Iturbe F · #32 | 28 | 10 | 3-8 | 2-7 | 2-2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 |
 E. Michaels F · #25 | 20 | 4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
 M. Mayock F · #33 | 23 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
 G. Jones F · #23 | 23 | 4 | 0-5 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
 M. Collins G · #2 | 28 | 20 | 5-13 | 2-4 | 8-10 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
 M. Smith F · #15 | 12 | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 C. Eagan F · #35 | 7 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 N. Jones F · #21 | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 DJ Sandi G · #0 | 12 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 K. Sebastian G · #4 | 9 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
 D. Hogans G · #3 | 16 | 8 | 3-12 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
 W. Nausadis G · #7 | 21 | 3 | 1-7 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
 A. Bryant F · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. McDonald F · #13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Casey G · #9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Anderson G · #8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 K. Prince G · #1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 53 | 15-54 | 7-29 | 16-20 | 32 | 7 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 23 | 18 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| AMER | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 15-54 | 29-69 |
| FG% | 28 | 42 |
| 3PT | 7-29 | 8-27 |
| 3P% | 24 | 30 |
| FT | 16-20 | 13-18 |
| FT% | 80 | 72 |
| REB | 32 | 48 |
| OR | 9 | 16 |
| DR | 23 | 32 |
| AST | 7 | 20 |
| STL | 4 | 15 |
| BLK | 4 | 4 |
| TO | 18 | 13 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 18 | 13 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 14 | 23 |
| FBPs | 2 | 17 |
| PIP | 14 | 40 |
| PF | 18 | 19 |
| LL | 2 | 27 |
| LC | 7 | 7 |
| LPCT | 4 | 90 |
At lock AMER 64.48–86.02 CIN · CIN by 21.5 pts vs AMER +24.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
MissJ. Iturbe · AMER
28 MIN · 10 PTST. Tejada · CIN
22 MIN · 13 PTSMadden Collins · AMER
STAT · 28 MIN · 20 PTS · 5-13 FG · 2-4 3PTMJ Collins Jr. · CIN
STAT · 25 MIN · 13 PTS · 4-8 FG · 1-5 3PTTylen Riley · CIN
STAT · 23 MIN · 9 PTS · 3-10 FG · 0-2 3PTAkai Fleming · CIN
STAT · 16 MIN · 9 PTS · 4-8 FG · 1-1 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
American vs Cincinnati pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is AMER +24.5, with a 55% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day