Murray State Racers at Tennessee State Tigers
Final · YouTube
94–64Last shot · Isaiah Stewart misses 26-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected MUR 85.55–76.99 TNST
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 1, 11:01 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 88548863
- Winner: Murray St (77%)
- Spread: TNST +10.5 covers (56%)
- Total: Under 165.5 (66%)
- Score error (both teams)21
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
MUR 85.55–76.99 TNST · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseTNST +0.0 off · MUR +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to TNST
- Market priorBlended 86% toward MUR -9.5 / total 165.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MUR | 46 | 48 | 94 |
| TNST | 35 | 29 | 64 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 5:2584–60
Christian Alston makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 5:1385–60
Talis Soulhac makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 5:1386–60
Talis Soulhac makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:2888–60
Kaden Magwood makes 16-foot jumper
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:0988–62
Aaron Bradshaw makes layup (Christian Alston assists)
- FT2nd Half 3:2088–63
Maddux Bodenhamer makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:2088–64
Maddux Bodenhamer makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:5889–64
Talis Soulhac makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:5890–64
Talis Soulhac makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:4891–64
Kaden Magwood makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:4892–64
Kaden Magwood makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:5194–64
Kaden Magwood makes layup
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| MUR | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 B. Rogers F · #11 | 26 | 10 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
 T. Soulhac G · #8 | 22 | 13 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 9-10 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 R. Domon G · #77 | 28 | 22 | 8-16 | 1-3 | 5-5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 |
 B. Shorter G · #34 | 21 | 13 | 5-9 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
 L. Crate G · #14 | 16 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
 J. Boulefaa F · #16 | 8 | 5 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
 P. Nikolic F · #9 | 7 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
 S. Tupuola F · #23 | 7 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
 D. Butler G · #25 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 M. Courbon G · #2 | 12 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 B. Shtolzberg G · #7 | 14 | 6 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
 K. Magwood G · #0 | 18 | 15 | 5-8 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
 C. Jones G · #6 | 17 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 N. Shabazz NA · #13 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 M. Padjen G · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 94 | 32-62 | 6-20 | 24-29 | 37 | 13 | 17 | 9 | 3 | 9 | 28 | 26 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MUR | TNST | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 32-62 | 17-55 |
| FG% | 52 | 31 |
| 3PT | 6-20 | 5-22 |
| 3P% | 30 | 23 |
| FT | 24-29 | 25-35 |
| FT% | 83 | 71 |
| REB | 37 | 34 |
| OR | 9 | 13 |
| DR | 28 | 21 |
| AST | 13 | 11 |
| STL | 9 | 6 |
| BLK | 3 | 2 |
| TO | 17 | 26 |
| TTO | 0 | 1 |
| ToTO | 17 | 26 |
| TECH | 2 | 1 |
| TECH | 2 | 1 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 26 | 15 |
| FBPs | 30 | 15 |
| PIP | 50 | 22 |
| PF | 26 | 25 |
| LL | 30 | 1 |
| LC | 4 | 4 |
| LPCT | 93 | 2 |
At lock MUR 85.55–76.99 TNST · MUR by 8.6 pts vs TNST +10.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock
MissB. Rogers · MUR
26 MIN · 10 PTSD. Lindsey · TNST
30 MIN · 10 PTSRoman Domon · MUR
STAT · 28 MIN · 22 PTS · 8-16 FG · 1-3 3PTKaden Magwood · MUR
STAT · 18 MIN · 15 PTS · 5-8 FG · 1-3 3PTTy-Laur Johnson · TNST
STAT · 32 MIN · 15 PTS · 3-8 FG · 1-2 3PTTalis Soulhac · MUR
STAT · 22 MIN · 13 PTS · 2-5 FG · 0-1 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Murray St vs Tennessee St pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is TNST +10.5, with a 54% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day