Saint Mary's Gaels at Nevada Wolf Pack
Final/OT · MW+
95–96Last shot · Joshua Dent makes 27-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected SMC 73.43–75.32 NEV
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 8:50 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 347560739
- Winner: Nevada (56%)
- Spread: NEV -1.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Over 146.5 (64%)
- Score error (both teams)41
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
SMC 73.43–75.32 NEV · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseNEV +17.0 off · SMC +14.5 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to NEV
- RecordNEV 2-0 · SMC 2-1
- Market priorBlended 71% toward NEV -1.5 / total 146.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMC | 35 | 44 | 16 | 95 |
| NEV | 42 | 37 | 17 | 96 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOTOT 2:4288–88
Mantas Juzenas makes 25-foot three point jumper (Joshua Dent assists)
- JUMPSHOTOT 2:2588–90
Styles Phipps makes 10-foot jumper
- FTOT 2:1089–90
Mantas Juzenas makes free throw 1 of 2
- FTOT 1:5989–91
Styles Phipps makes free throw 1 of 2
- FTOT 1:5989–92
Styles Phipps makes free throw 2 of 2
- FTOT 0:5990–92
Darius Bivins makes free throw 2 of 2
- FTOT 0:3890–93
Vaughn Weems makes free throw 1 of 2
- FTOT 0:2090–94
Elijah Price makes free throw 1 of 2
- LAYUPSHOTOT 0:1192–94
Thomas Ndong makes layup
- FTOT 0:0592–95
Vaughn Weems makes free throw 1 of 2
- FTOT 0:0592–96
Vaughn Weems makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOTOT 0:0195–96
Joshua Dent makes 27-foot three point jumper
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| SMC | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 V. Zougris F · #35 | 22 | 6 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
 J. Gardner C · #32 | 13 | 4 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
 M. Juzenas G · #0 | 41 | 24 | 7-18 | 5-13 | 5-7 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 |
 J. Dent G · #7 | 43 | 30 | 10-17 | 5-8 | 5-5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 R. Hawke G · #8 | 20 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 |
 T. Ndong F · #18 | 28 | 6 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
 K. Gad F · #24 | 5 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 L. Fennell G · #9 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 D. Bivins G · #1 | 20 | 5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
 J. Dent-Smith G · #2 | 31 | 20 | 7-15 | 3-9 | 3-3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
 T. MacLean F · #42 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Lewis F · #25 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 F. Pavely C · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 S. Altuntas C · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Lewis G · #20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 S. Curvy NA · #3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 95 | 33-76 | 13-35 | 16-19 | 38 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 12 | 26 | 25 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| SMC | NEV | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 33-76 | 34-59 |
| FG% | 43 | 58 |
| 3PT | 13-35 | 5-11 |
| 3P% | 37 | 45 |
| FT | 16-19 | 23-36 |
| FT% | 84 | 64 |
| REB | 38 | 38 |
| OR | 12 | 5 |
| DR | 26 | 33 |
| AST | 17 | 24 |
| STL | 7 | 7 |
| BLK | 1 | 2 |
| TO | 10 | 12 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 10 | 12 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 15 | 19 |
| FBPs | 13 | 15 |
| PIP | 26 | 46 |
| PF | 25 | 17 |
| LL | 9 | 10 |
| LC | 7 | 7 |
| LPCT | 19 | 68 |
At lock SMC 73.43–75.32 NEV · 2.3 pts over 146.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
HitV. Zougris · SMC
22 MIN · 6 PTSE. Price · NEV
38 MIN · 11 PTSVaughn Weems · NEV
STAT · 35 MIN · 33 PTS · 12-20 FG · 4-8 3PTJoshua Dent · SMC
STAT · 43 MIN · 30 PTS · 10-17 FG · 5-8 3PTStyles Phipps · NEV
STAT · 31 MIN · 25 PTS · 10-12 FG · 1-2 3PTMantas Juzenas · SMC
STAT · 41 MIN · 24 PTS · 7-18 FG · 5-13 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Saint Mary's vs Nevada pick result · Nov 8, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 146.5, with a 51% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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