Idaho State Bengals at Air Force Falcons
Final · MW+
82–89Last shot · Grant Best makes free throw 2 of 2
At lock: projected IDST 77.32–83.86 AF
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 8:50 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 982539778
- Winner: Air Force (71%)
- Spread: AF -5.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Over 160.5 (55%)
- Score error (both teams)9
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
IDST 77.32–83.86 AF · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseAF +14.1 off · IDST -3.4 off, shrunk 20%
- Home field+3.4 pts to AF
- RecordAF 2-1 · IDST 0-3
- Market priorBlended 84% toward AF -5.5 / total 161.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| IDST | 42 | 40 | 82 |
| AF | 41 | 48 | 89 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:2776–82
Eli Garner makes 24-foot three point jumper
- FT2nd Half 2:0676–83
Brendan Martin makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:0676–84
Brendan Martin makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:2377–84
Malachi Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:1679–84
Malachi Johnson makes layup (Ike Palmer assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:2779–85
Kam Sanders makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2779–86
Kam Sanders makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:1580–86
Eli Garner makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:1280–87
Lucas Hobin makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:0682–87
MaCarhy Morris makes layup
- FT2nd Half 0:0382–88
Grant Best makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:0382–89
Grant Best makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| IDST | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mala. Johnson F · #14 | 26 | 21 | 7-13 | 1-2 | 6-7 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
 K. DeMuynck F · #4 | 26 | 4 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
 N. Amoran G · #10 | 18 | 7 | 3-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
 M. Morris G · #2 | 39 | 22 | 6-13 | 2-6 | 8-8 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
 Ty Virgil G · #3 | 22 | 0 | 0-8 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
 I. Palmer F · #23 | 21 | 14 | 5-9 | 0-1 | 4-6 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
 Malik Johnson F · #34 | 5 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 Q. Patterson F · #21 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 E. Garner G · #25 | 11 | 4 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 1-4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
 J. Dulay G · #5 | 18 | 6 | 2-7 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
 E. Harel G · #13 | 12 | 4 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
 A. Goffe G · #55 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 B. Lowenbach F · #15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Amundsen G · #30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Dorsey G · #1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 L. Birley G · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 82 | 28-72 | 7-30 | 19-25 | 46 | 16 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 20 | 26 | 30 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| IDST | AF | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 28-72 | 25-67 |
| FG% | 39 | 37 |
| 3PT | 7-30 | 5-25 |
| 3P% | 23 | 20 |
| FT | 19-25 | 34-40 |
| FT% | 76 | 85 |
| REB | 46 | 46 |
| OR | 20 | 19 |
| DR | 26 | 27 |
| AST | 16 | 10 |
| STL | 5 | 11 |
| BLK | 3 | 3 |
| TO | 16 | 11 |
| TTO | 1 | 0 |
| ToTO | 16 | 11 |
| TECH | 0 | 2 |
| TECH | 0 | 2 |
| FLAG | 1 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 9 | 15 |
| FBPs | 15 | 26 |
| PIP | 38 | 38 |
| PF | 30 | 22 |
| LL | 7 | 9 |
| LC | 7 | 7 |
| LPCT | 46 | 50 |
At lock IDST 77.32–83.86 AF · AF by 6.5 pts vs AF -5.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
HitMala. Johnson · IDST
26 MIN · 21 PTSL. Hobin · AF
29 MIN · 16 PTSGrant Best · AF
STAT · 33 MIN · 25 PTS · 4-11 FG · 1-3 3PTMaCarhy Morris · IDST
STAT · 39 MIN · 22 PTS · 6-13 FG · 2-6 3PTKam Sanders · AF
STAT · 26 MIN · 18 PTS · 7-15 FG · 0-3 3PTIke Palmer · IDST
STAT · 21 MIN · 14 PTS · 5-9 FG · 0-1 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Idaho St vs Air Force pick result · Nov 8, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is AF -5.5, with a 53% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day