Air Force Falcons at Wright State Raiders
Final · ESPN+
71–102Last shot · A.J. Patterson misses 8-foot jumper
At lock: projected AF 73.94–83.44 WRST
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 2:47 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 881874064
- Winner: Wright St (79%)
- Spread: AF +10.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Under 159.5 (60%)
- Score error (both teams)21
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
AF 73.94–83.44 WRST · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseWRST +0.0 off · AF +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to WRST
- Market priorBlended 86% toward WRST -12.5 / total 162.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AF | 31 | 40 | 71 |
| WRST | 60 | 42 | 102 |
Scoring plays
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 5:0061–89
Grant Best makes layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:1563–89
Eli Robinson makes layup (Grant Best assists)
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 3:5263–91
Andrea Holden makes 0-foot tip in layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:4266–91
Josh Gatete makes 23-foot three point jumper (A.J. Patterson assists)
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 3:2666–93
Kellen Pickett makes 6-foot dunk (Chadlyn Traylor assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:5668–93
Grant Best makes driving layup (A.J. Patterson assists)
- FT2nd Half 2:3268–94
Andrea Holden makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:3268–95
Andrea Holden makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:1471–95
Grant Best makes 23-foot three point jumper (Josh Gatete assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:5671–98
Ilija Milijasevic makes 22-foot three point jumper (Dominic Pangonis assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:2471–100
Chadlyn Traylor makes 10-foot jumper
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 1:0271–102
Isaiah Williams makes 4-foot dunk (Chadlyn Traylor assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| AF | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 L. Hobin F · #24 | 17 | 2 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
 B. Martin F · #11 | 8 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
 C. Walker F · #10 | 28 | 11 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 5-10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 2 |
 G. Best G · #33 | 31 | 17 | 6-14 | 2-5 | 3-3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
 K. Sanders G · #3 | 33 | 17 | 6-16 | 1-4 | 4-8 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
 R. Dering F · #5 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 E. Robinson F · #30 | 11 | 4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
 K. Gilles F · #32 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 J. Gatete F · #0 | 6 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 W. Celichowski C · #51 | 12 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 E. Greenberg G · #21 | 20 | 3 | 1-5 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
 J. Hinds G · #15 | 6 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 A.J. Patterson G · #2 | 23 | 12 | 3-9 | 2-4 | 4-6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
 C. Fay F · #13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Thomas F · #1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 K. Frisch F · #8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Caslaru C · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. Griffin G · #17 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 T. Keene G · #6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 E. Taite G · #7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 71 | 22-68 | 7-26 | 20-32 | 36 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 1 | 23 | 13 | 19 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| AF | WRST | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 22-68 | 38-64 |
| FG% | 32 | 59 |
| 3PT | 7-26 | 10-23 |
| 3P% | 27 | 43 |
| FT | 20-32 | 16-21 |
| FT% | 63 | 76 |
| REB | 36 | 42 |
| OR | 23 | 13 |
| DR | 13 | 29 |
| AST | 9 | 21 |
| STL | 9 | 8 |
| BLK | 1 | 12 |
| TO | 13 | 14 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 13 | 14 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 11 | 11 |
| FBPs | 5 | 19 |
| PIP | 26 | 52 |
| PF | 19 | 21 |
| LL | 0 | 32 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 99 |
At lock AF 73.94–83.44 WRST · WRST by 9.5 pts vs AF +10.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
MissL. Hobin · AF
17 MIN · 2 PTSK. Pickett · WRST
26 MIN · 13 PTSDominic Pangonis · WRST
STAT · 32 MIN · 30 PTS · 9-10 FG · 6-7 3PTAndrea Holden · WRST
STAT · 19 MIN · 20 PTS · 7-10 FG · 1-1 3PTGrant Best · AF
STAT · 31 MIN · 17 PTS · 6-14 FG · 2-5 3PTKam Sanders · AF
STAT · 33 MIN · 17 PTS · 6-16 FG · 1-4 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Air Force vs Wright St pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is AF +10.5, with a 51% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day