Youngstown State Penguins at St. Bonaventure Bonnies
Final · ESPN+
79–71Last shot · Zach Philipkoski misses 25-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected YSU 71.36–80.86 SBU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 2:47 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 790932568
- Winner: St Bonaventure (80%)
- Spread: YSU +10.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Under 153.5 (56%)
- Score error (both teams)17
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
YSU 71.36–80.86 SBU · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseSBU +0.0 off · YSU +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to SBU
- Market priorBlended 86% toward SBU -10.5 / total 153.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| YSU | 32 | 47 | 79 |
| SBU | 36 | 35 | 71 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:5766–66
Dom Aekins makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaiden Haynes assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:3068–66
Linus Holmstrom makes driving layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:5570–66
Dom Aekins makes 8-foot floating jump shot
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:3570–68
Benjamin Bill makes layup (Zach Philipkoski assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:1672–68
Kelvin Amoako makes layup (Dom Aekins assists)
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 0:5272–70
Benjamin Bill makes 0-foot tip in dunk
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:2575–70
Linus Holmstrom makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dom Aekins assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:1775–71
Taj Au-Duke makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:1376–71
Linus Holmstrom makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:1377–71
Linus Holmstrom makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:0578–71
Jeff Nwankwo makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:0579–71
Jeff Nwankwo makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| YSU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 K. Amoako C · #2 | 24 | 14 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 3 |
 J. Haynes G · #8 | 34 | 9 | 3-9 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
 D. Aekins G · #7 | 34 | 9 | 4-11 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
 L. Holmstrom G · #4 | 34 | 26 | 8-16 | 6-13 | 4-4 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 |
 J. Nwankwo G · #3 | 30 | 11 | 4-12 | 1-4 | 2-6 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3 |
 J. Moupadele F · #59 | 16 | 6 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 |
 J. Coleman F · #1 | 10 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 K. Destin G · #5 | 6 | 2 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 J. Tyler G · #0 | 10 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 J. Livingston G · #20 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 E. Summers-Livingston F · #21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 L. Lokhmanchuk F · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Spurlock G · #22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. Adcock-Vidouria G · #13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 79 | 26-67 | 12-32 | 15-21 | 47 | 17 | 13 | 8 | 1 | 19 | 28 | 19 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| YSU | SBU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 26-67 | 28-60 |
| FG% | 39 | 47 |
| 3PT | 12-32 | 6-17 |
| 3P% | 38 | 35 |
| FT | 15-21 | 9-21 |
| FT% | 71 | 43 |
| REB | 47 | 38 |
| OR | 19 | 12 |
| DR | 28 | 26 |
| AST | 17 | 13 |
| STL | 8 | 10 |
| BLK | 1 | 8 |
| TO | 13 | 13 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 13 | 13 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 19 | 16 |
| FBPs | 6 | 10 |
| PIP | 26 | 40 |
| PF | 19 | 14 |
| LL | 9 | 5 |
| LC | 8 | 8 |
| LPCT | 42 | 28 |
At lock YSU 71.36–80.86 SBU · SBU by 9.5 pts vs YSU +10.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
HitK. Amoako · YSU
24 MIN · 14 PTSB. Bill · SBU
29 MIN · 15 PTSZach Philipkoski · SBU
STAT · 33 MIN · 28 PTS · 10-14 FG · 4-7 3PTLinus Holmstrom · YSU
STAT · 34 MIN · 26 PTS · 8-16 FG · 6-13 3PTTaj Au-Duke · SBU
STAT · 31 MIN · 12 PTS · 5-12 FG · 1-3 3PTJeff Nwankwo · YSU
STAT · 30 MIN · 11 PTS · 4-12 FG · 1-4 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Youngstown St vs St Bonaventure pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is YSU +10.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day