Navy Midshipmen at George Washington Revolutionaries
Final · ESPN+
39–91Last shot · Drew Timmons makes free throw 2 of 2
At lock: projected NAVY 66.63–81.29 GW
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 2:47 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3022650085
- Winner: G Washington (90%)
- Spread: NAVY +16.5 covers (57%)
- Total: Under 148.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)38
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
NAVY 66.63–81.29 GW · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseGW +0.0 off · NAVY +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to GW
- Market priorBlended 86% toward GW -18.5 / total 149.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NAVY | 24 | 15 | 39 |
| GW | 44 | 47 | 91 |
Scoring plays
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 5:4534–78
Dylan James makes 0-foot tip in layup
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 5:2534–80
Ryder Frost makes 1-foot dunk
- FT2nd Half 4:5834–81
Ryder Frost makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:5834–82
Ryder Frost makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:3434–83
Ryder Frost makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:3434–84
Ryder Frost makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:5434–87
Ryder Frost makes 23-foot three point jumper (Terrance Arceneaux assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:1334–89
Jean Aranguren makes layup (Terrance Arceneaux assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:4436–89
Julian Gabbidon makes layup (Luke Mayberry assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:3736–91
Promis N'Landu makes driving layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:1438–91
Julian Gabbidon makes driving layup
- FT2nd Half 0:2739–91
Drew Timmons makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| NAVY | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 J. Ashley Jr. F · #11 | 20 | 1 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
 J. Nordin G · #18 | 19 | 4 | 1-6 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 D. Burnett G · #7 | 28 | 11 | 4-7 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
 J. Kim G · #10 | 33 | 2 | 1-11 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
 C. Cole G · #2 | 29 | 8 | 3-9 | 0-2 | 2-4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
 D. Timmons F · #22 | 16 | 4 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
 S. Griffin F · #17 | 16 | 3 | 1-8 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
 L. Mayberry G · #55 | 20 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 A. Iscandari G · #6 | 8 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 M. Gaffney G · #24 | 5 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 J. Gabbidon G · #3 | 6 | 4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 RJ Roche F · #35 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. Gassaway F · #34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 JP Baldwin F · #23 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 B. Reynierson F · #19 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Pollock F · #8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 O. Gray F · #14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Jackson F · #42 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 T. Raji F · #33 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Crane C · #25 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 S. Pitrof G · #20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Williams G · #9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 W. Fletcher II G · #1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 N. Howard G · #0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Pennick G · #21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 39 | 14-58 | 2-18 | 9-13 | 28 | 4 | 19 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 18 | 17 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| NAVY | GW | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 14-58 | 31-56 |
| FG% | 24 | 55 |
| 3PT | 2-18 | 14-27 |
| 3P% | 11 | 52 |
| FT | 9-13 | 15-16 |
| FT% | 69 | 94 |
| REB | 28 | 40 |
| OR | 10 | 7 |
| DR | 18 | 33 |
| AST | 4 | 20 |
| STL | 6 | 14 |
| BLK | 2 | 9 |
| TO | 19 | 13 |
| TTO | 2 | 0 |
| ToTO | 19 | 13 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 9 | 23 |
| FBPs | 4 | 21 |
| PIP | 22 | 34 |
| PF | 17 | 11 |
| LL | 0 | 55 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 99 |
At lock NAVY 66.63–81.29 GW · GW by 14.7 pts vs NAVY +16.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
MissJ. Ashley Jr. · NAVY
20 MIN · 1 PTSL. Urbiha · GW
19 MIN · 7 PTSRyder Frost · GW
STAT · 19 MIN · 14 PTS · 4-9 FG · 2-6 3PTPromis N'Landu · GW
STAT · 19 MIN · 14 PTS · 6-7 FG · 2-2 3PTFelix Kossaras · GW
STAT · 21 MIN · 14 PTS · 4-6 FG · 4-6 3PTDavid Burnett · NAVY
STAT · 28 MIN · 11 PTS · 4-7 FG · 1-1 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Navy vs G Washington pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is NAVY +16.5, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day