Cleveland State Vikings at Bowling Green Falcons
Final · ESPN+
79–95Last shot · Curtis Stinson Jr. makes layup
At lock: projected CLE 73.56–84.62 BGSU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 9, 9:01 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1497894366
- Winner: Bowling Green (84%)
- Spread: CLE +12.5 covers (55%)
- Total: Over 156.5 (60%)
- Score error (both teams)15
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
CLE 73.56–84.62 BGSU · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseBGSU +10.8 off · CLE +7.8 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to BGSU
- RecordBGSU 2-0 · CLE 1-2
- Market priorBlended 71% toward BGSU -12.5 / total 153.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 37 | 42 | 79 |
| BGSU | 44 | 51 | 95 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 4:1270–84
Makhi Leach makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:4570–86
Makhi Leach makes 10-foot pullup jump shot
- FT2nd Half 3:2570–87
Makhi Leach makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:2570–88
Makhi Leach makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:0472–88
Rayvon Griffith makes layup
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 2:3572–90
Preston Squire makes 1-foot dunk (Josiah Shackelford assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:2274–90
Dre Jones makes layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:4376–90
Micah Bays makes driving layup
- FT2nd Half 1:4377–90
Micah Bays makes free throw 1 of 1
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 1:1877–92
Makhi Leach makes 3-foot dunk (Preston Squire assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:3377–95
Juan Cranford Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:2879–95
Curtis Stinson Jr. makes layup
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| CLE | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 D. Jones F · #12 | 16 | 6 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
 C. Stinson Jr. G · #9 | 31 | 18 | 8-8 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
 A. Bruskotter G · #5 | 11 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 J. Lowery G · #0 | 26 | 9 | 3-8 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
 R. Griffith G · #1 | 35 | 26 | 12-17 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
 G. Headings F · #33 | 17 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 B. White C · #7 | 6 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
 O. Uagboe G · #11 | 16 | 4 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 X. McKinney G · #4 | 11 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 O. Bronston Jr. G · #2 | 14 | 6 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
 M. Bays G · #3 | 17 | 7 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 3-3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
 B. McCruter F · #15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. Vorst C · #22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. Foster G · #13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 79 | 31-51 | 7-17 | 10-17 | 22 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 15 | 21 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| CLE | BGSU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 31-51 | 33-55 |
| FG% | 61 | 60 |
| 3PT | 7-17 | 14-28 |
| 3P% | 41 | 50 |
| FT | 10-17 | 15-17 |
| FT% | 59 | 88 |
| REB | 22 | 26 |
| OR | 7 | 8 |
| DR | 15 | 18 |
| AST | 12 | 19 |
| STL | 5 | 5 |
| BLK | 0 | 2 |
| TO | 11 | 8 |
| TTO | 1 | 0 |
| ToTO | 11 | 8 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 9 | 23 |
| FBPs | 5 | 12 |
| PIP | 46 | 34 |
| PF | 21 | 17 |
| LL | 2 | 18 |
| LC | 1 | 1 |
| LPCT | 4 | 93 |
At lock CLE 73.56–84.62 BGSU · BGSU by 11.1 pts vs CLE +12.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
MissD. Jones · CLE
16 MIN · 6 PTSP. Squire · BGSU
31 MIN · 6 PTSRayvon Griffith · CLE
STAT · 35 MIN · 26 PTS · 12-17 FG · 2-4 3PTJosiah Shackelford · BGSU
STAT · 36 MIN · 25 PTS · 9-14 FG · 6-9 3PTMakhi Leach · BGSU
STAT · 35 MIN · 22 PTS · 7-13 FG · 1-4 3PTCurtis Stinson Jr. · CLE
STAT · 31 MIN · 18 PTS · 8-8 FG · 1-1 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Cleveland St vs Bowling Green pick result · Nov 9, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is CLE +12.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day