Bellarmine Knights at Miami (OH) RedHawks
Final · ESPN+
73–80Last shot · Jacob Wassler misses 25-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected BELL 70.29–89.46 M-OH
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 1:14 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1548374318
- Winner: Miami OH (95%)
- Spread: BELL +20.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Over 159.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)13
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
BELL 70.29–89.46 M-OH · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseM-OH +11.6 off · BELL +12.5 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to M-OH
- RecordM-OH 2-0 · BELL 0-3
- Market priorBlended 85% toward M-OH -18.5 / total 158.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BELL | 31 | 42 | 73 |
| M-OH | 36 | 44 | 80 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 3:3064–72
Almar Atlason makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:2265–72
Kenyon Goodin makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:2266–72
Kenyon Goodin makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:5766–74
Evan Ipsaro makes driving layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:4168–74
Tyler Doyle makes 8-foot hook shot
- FT2nd Half 2:2468–75
Evan Ipsaro makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:0771–75
Sam Donald makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyler Doyle assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:4771–77
Antwone Woolfolk makes layup (Justin Kirby assists)
- FT2nd Half 1:0771–78
Antwone Woolfolk makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:2373–78
Tyler Doyle makes 10-foot jumper
- FT2nd Half 0:2273–79
Kyle Waltz makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2273–80
Kyle Waltz makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| BELL | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 J. Wassler F · #44 | 23 | 11 | 5-12 | 0-6 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
 S. Donald F · #23 | 33 | 12 | 4-11 | 2-7 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
 T. Doyle G · #2 | 37 | 20 | 9-19 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
 G. Whitaker G · #10 | 10 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
 K. Goodin G · #8 | 36 | 16 | 6-13 | 0-4 | 4-4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
 E. Harrell F · #7 | 10 | 7 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 J. Gizzi G · #11 | 21 | 5 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 D. Surratt G · #5 | 20 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
 G. Neal G · #4 | 10 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 B. Klopfenstein F · #33 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 T. Tornatta F · #9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. McAfee F · #1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Meagher G · #24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 R. Swan G · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Darrell G · #25 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 T. Clark G · #0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 73 | 30-66 | 3-23 | 10-10 | 31 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 21 | 17 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| BELL | M-OH | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 30-66 | 24-55 |
| FG% | 45 | 44 |
| 3PT | 3-23 | 10-34 |
| 3P% | 13 | 29 |
| FT | 10-10 | 22-26 |
| FT% | 100 | 85 |
| REB | 31 | 36 |
| OR | 10 | 10 |
| DR | 21 | 26 |
| AST | 12 | 17 |
| STL | 6 | 7 |
| BLK | 2 | 4 |
| TO | 10 | 10 |
| TTO | 1 | 0 |
| ToTO | 10 | 10 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 9 | 10 |
| FBPs | 10 | 10 |
| PIP | 50 | 28 |
| PF | 17 | 13 |
| LL | 2 | 12 |
| LC | 5 | 5 |
| LPCT | 7 | 86 |
At lock BELL 70.29–89.46 M-OH · M-OH by 19.2 pts vs BELL +20.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
HitJ. Wassler · BELL
23 MIN · 11 PTSA. Atlason · M-OH
34 MIN · 15 PTSTyler Doyle · BELL
STAT · 37 MIN · 20 PTS · 9-19 FG · 0-3 3PTKenyon Goodin · BELL
STAT · 36 MIN · 16 PTS · 6-13 FG · 0-4 3PTJustin Kirby · M-OH
STAT · 30 MIN · 15 PTS · 5-8 FG · 3-5 3PTKyle Waltz · M-OH
STAT · 27 MIN · 15 PTS · 3-5 FG · 2-4 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Bellarmine vs Miami OH pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is BELL +20.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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