Ball State Cardinals at Georgia Southern Eagles
Final · ESPN+
55–67Last shot · Kamden McGilveary misses 23-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected BALL 79.10–77.42 GASO
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 2:47 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1531596699
- Winner: Ball State (56%)
- Spread: GASO +2.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Under 158.5 (58%)
- Score error (both teams)36
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
BALL 79.10–77.42 GASO · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseGASO +0.0 off · BALL +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to GASO
- Market priorBlended 72% toward BALL -1.5 / total 162.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BALL | 22 | 33 | 55 |
| GASO | 37 | 30 | 67 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 5:2642–63
Dallas Gardner makes free throw 1 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:2844–63
Joey Hart makes layup (Aaron Fine assists)
- FT2nd Half 2:5945–63
Javion Guy-King makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:5946–63
Javion Guy-King makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:2547–63
Joey Hart makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:2548–63
Joey Hart makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:4749–63
Joey Hart makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:4750–63
Joey Hart makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:1850–66
Rashaad Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 1:0552–66
Kamden McGilveary makes 3-foot dunk
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:2455–66
Javion Guy-King makes 26-foot three point jumper (Aaron Fine assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:2455–67
Josh Dixon makes free throw 1 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| BALL | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 M. Jones F · #24 | 32 | 4 | 1-6 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 1 |
 J. Smith C · #7 | 15 | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
 A. Fine G · #3 | 16 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
 K. Parker G · #5 | 24 | 5 | 2-13 | 1-10 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
 T. Lewis G · #1 | 23 | 5 | 1-7 | 0-5 | 3-5 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 |
 K. McGrew F · #25 | 10 | 6 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
 K. McGilveary G · #6 | 10 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
 J. Henderson Jr. G · #4 | 14 | 5 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 S. Blake G · #0 | 21 | 5 | 2-7 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
 J. Hart G · #20 | 14 | 6 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 J. Guy-King G · #2 | 21 | 12 | 4-8 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
 B. Durodola F · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 K. Wright F · #33 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 Z. Collins G · #55 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 55 | 16-59 | 5-37 | 18-25 | 47 | 5 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 15 | 32 | 23 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| BALL | GASO | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 16-59 | 20-53 |
| FG% | 27 | 38 |
| 3PT | 5-37 | 5-19 |
| 3P% | 14 | 26 |
| FT | 18-25 | 22-36 |
| FT% | 72 | 61 |
| REB | 47 | 39 |
| OR | 15 | 11 |
| DR | 32 | 28 |
| AST | 5 | 10 |
| STL | 7 | 9 |
| BLK | 2 | 4 |
| TO | 15 | 10 |
| TTO | 0 | 1 |
| ToTO | 15 | 10 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 14 | 18 |
| FBPs | 10 | 22 |
| PIP | 20 | 28 |
| PF | 23 | 16 |
| LL | 2 | 28 |
| LC | 1 | 1 |
| LPCT | 3 | 95 |
At lock BALL 79.10–77.42 GASO · BALL by 1.7 pts vs GASO +2.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
HitM. Jones · BALL
32 MIN · 4 PTSC. Crissman · GASO
10 MIN · 0-2 FGEltramon Smith · GASO
STAT · 30 MIN · 24 PTS · 6-14 FG · 3-10 3PTDallas Gardner · GASO
STAT · 28 MIN · 13 PTS · 4-7 FG · 5-9 FTJavion Guy-King · BALL
STAT · 21 MIN · 12 PTS · 4-8 FG · 2-5 3PTJosh Dixon · GASO
STAT · 18 MIN · 7 PTS · 2-4 FG · 3-4 FT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Ball State vs GA Southern pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is GASO +2.5, with a 51% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day