Ohio Bobcats at South Alabama Jaguars
Final · ESPN+
86–77Last shot · Jalen Langsy misses 31-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected OHIO 74.45–76.48 USA
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 2:47 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1615484794
- Winner: South Alabama (57%)
- Spread: USA -1.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Under 153.5 (62%)
- Score error (both teams)11
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
OHIO 74.45–76.48 USA · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseUSA +0.0 off · OHIO +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to USA
- Market priorBlended 72% toward USA -1.5 / total 154.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OHIO | 34 | 52 | 86 |
| USA | 35 | 42 | 77 |
Scoring plays
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:4176–70
Diego Roman makes layup
- FT2nd Half 1:4176–71
Diego Roman makes free throw 1 of 1
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:3379–71
Kolton Mitchell makes 24-foot three point jumper (Siebe Ledegen assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:5982–71
Jackson Paveletzke makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kolton Mitchell assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:5182–72
Jalen Langsy makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:5182–73
Jalen Langsy makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:3982–76
Jalen Langsy makes 24-foot three point jumper (Aaron Goldstein assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:3583–76
Jackson Paveletzke makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:3584–76
Jackson Paveletzke makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2484–77
Diego Roman makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2385–77
Jackson Paveletzke makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2386–77
Jackson Paveletzke makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| OHIO | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 D. Makitan F · #13 | 36 | 8 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 2 |
 J. Simmons F · #1 | 36 | 10 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
 S. Ledegen G · #10 | 27 | 15 | 6-14 | 1-7 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 |
 K. Mitchell G · #14 | 30 | 21 | 7-15 | 7-15 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
 J. Paveletzke G · #3 | 38 | 20 | 4-4 | 3-3 | 9-11 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
 K. Kuany F · #17 | 7 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 M. Petkov G · #24 | 8 | 6 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 C. Brogan G · #4 | 4 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
 K. D'Augustino G · #12 | 14 | 4 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
 J. Bowens F · #2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Trudic F · #0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 Z. Mosley F · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Icke C · #8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Reese G · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Burris G · #21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 86 | 28-57 | 16-38 | 14-18 | 36 | 21 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 27 | 20 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| OHIO | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 28-57 | 27-54 |
| FG% | 49 | 50 |
| 3PT | 16-38 | 6-22 |
| 3P% | 42 | 27 |
| FT | 14-18 | 17-28 |
| FT% | 78 | 61 |
| REB | 36 | 27 |
| OR | 9 | 5 |
| DR | 27 | 22 |
| AST | 21 | 13 |
| STL | 5 | 7 |
| BLK | 2 | 1 |
| TO | 13 | 10 |
| TTO | 1 | 1 |
| ToTO | 13 | 10 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 16 | 13 |
| FBPs | 13 | 8 |
| PIP | 22 | 40 |
| PF | 20 | 16 |
| LL | 11 | 7 |
| LC | 7 | 7 |
| LPCT | 62 | 33 |
At lock OHIO 74.45–76.48 USA · 2.6 pts under 153.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
MissD. Makitan · OHIO
36 MIN · 8 PTSD. Hueitt · USA
25 MIN · 2 PTSJalen Langsy · USA
STAT · 36 MIN · 25 PTS · 9-18 FG · 3-9 3PTKolton Mitchell · OHIO
STAT · 30 MIN · 21 PTS · 7-15 FG · 7-15 3PTJackson Paveletzke · OHIO
STAT · 38 MIN · 20 PTS · 4-4 FG · 3-3 3PTDiego Roman · USA
STAT · 35 MIN · 19 PTS · 7-9 FG · 1-1 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Ohio vs South Alabama pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 153.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day